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The act of placing an order, once a key human connection point, is increasingly mediated by a screen. Self-ordering kiosks, smartphone apps and QR-based menus have proliferated as labour costs balloon and margins tighten. 51% of customers spend more when ordering via kiosks – a clear win for operators. 84% prefer self-ordering, but that doesn’t mean they want screens everywhere. As Starbucks’ recent automation rollback shows, efficiency sells, but in a loneliness epidemic, connection still matters more than ever.
Asia has not traditionally been thought of as the engine of global coffee demand. But that is changing fast. Its coffee demand has grown 14.5% since 2018. China’s café market jumped 58% in 2023 to 50,000+ stores, overtaking the US as the world’s largest branded coffee shop market. Indonesia’s domestic consumption has tripled since pre-pandemic years, and India’s coffee industry is set to double by 2030.
China, with its rapidly increasing coffee consumption, sheer scale, and flexible buyer profile has caught the attention of coffee traders worldwide. China’s coffee consumption has grown by 150% in the last 10 years. Green coffee traders are racing towards this opportunity, trying to break into this promising market. Imports from Brazil and Ethiopia are soaring – Brazilian coffee exports to China rose 186.1% year-on-year in 2023-24.
Not so long ago, market analysis in the coffee sector was the domain of a few: traders, brokers, and seasoned roasters with access to tightly held information. AI-generated LinkedIn posts surged by 189% after the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022. The coffee market is flooded with predictions and self-made “experts”. Coffee market movements are increasingly detached from supply and demand fundamentals.
For years, independent coffee roasters thrived on craftsmanship, direct trade relationships, and the growing demand for premium coffee. Today, specialty coffee roasters are scrambling for cash, selling stakes or entire businesses at record rates. With Arabica prices soaring past $4 per pound, roasters face a brutal choice. Raise prices, cut quality, or find investors – fast.
