Production & Trade

Like wine producers, coffee producers and traders are becoming more deliberate marketers – building recognisable identities around lots while trying to preserve traceability and producer recognition.

The reason is rarely that smaller producers are incapable of producing exceptional coffee. More often, it comes down to business. Established farms typically have the infrastructure, logistics and export relationships already in place to make their coffees easier to access – qualities that matter alongside quality and price when roasters are making purchasing decisions.

Micro lots and blends are not competing products, but complementary ones – one provides commercial stability, while the other demonstrates the quality and sourcing expertise that defines a specialty coffee brand.

The "coffee hunter" narrative can oversimplify how sourcing works. While buyers and roasters may become the public face of a coffee, a large network of people often contributes to its selection long before it appears on a cupping table.

In an industry that markets itself as both luxurious and moral, the success of the producer can feel awkward — even threatening. Specialty coffee wants to be ethical – and exclusive: 73% of reported purchases are now labelled “sustainable." But producer success still makes specialty coffee uncomfortable. The implicit assumption is that roasters should favour those with the most to gain.

Specialty coffee prides itself on being a culture of critique. Every cup is scored, dissected and discussed; every flavour note debated; every roast curve scrutinised. Feedback, in theory, is the industry’s currency. In practice, it is unevenly distributed. Producers are often hungry for guidance, while roasters are reluctant to hear it. At this year’s Global Coffee Awards, many origin-roasted coffees were rejected for vegetal and phenolic flavours – a technical flaw that better feedback could quickly fix.

For decades Colombia’s coffee identity rested on one idea: washed coffees – or “milds,” as they are known to traders. Colombia, long the world’s champion of washed coffees, has become the global hub for co-ferments and experimental lots. This is a dramatic break from decades of FNC orthodoxy. At the 2025 Global Coffee Awards, Colombian producers dominated the experimental categories.

Contracts are meant to provide enforceable certainty in an uncertain business. In coffee – a product whose price can swing up to or more than 40% in a year on the whim of weather, currency moves or speculative funds – certainty is a luxury buyers and sellers crave. Rigid “no-default” rules are exposing who truly carries the risk. Sustainability needs shared risk – up to 90% of value still bypasses coffee producers, undermining the supply chain they rely on.

China, with its rapidly increasing coffee consumption, sheer scale, and flexible buyer profile has caught the attention of coffee traders worldwide. China’s coffee consumption has grown by 150% in the last 10 years. Green coffee traders are racing towards this opportunity, trying to break into this promising market. Imports from Brazil and Ethiopia are soaring – Brazilian coffee exports to China rose 186.1% year-on-year in 2023-24.

For decades, the global coffee trade has followed a familiar script. Traders in wealthy consumer markets held the purse strings, advancing funds to farmers and exporters to secure supply before harvest. But as inflation, tariffs, and credit tightening strain coffee companies, a curious reversal is emerging: farmers with access to capital are beginning to finance roasters. With coffee futures near record highs, cash-strapped roasters are turning to wealthier farmers for financing – reversing the usual flow of capital. In Latin America, farm loans can carry annual interest rates of up to 30%. This raises questions about whether producer credit to roasters is empowerment or hidden subsidy.

For years, coffee’s giants have been cast as villains. Their dominance, critics argue, squeezes farmers, depresses quality, and cheapens a product whose cultural cachet has soared in the past two decades. Producer countries’ share of commercial retail coffee prices has barely budged in the last 20 years, even with prices declining. Meanwhile at the upper end of the specialty market, prices rose by more than 75% – to whose benefit? Big roasters often run on thin margins balanced by scale, while boutique specialty firms mark up heavily to cover small-operation costs.

On September 5th President Donald J. Trump signed an executive order updating tariff rules in line with ongoing trade negotiations. It designates coffee as an “unavailable natural resource,” eligible for exemption but only through future trade deals. 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee have already shaken America’s market, and appear to be staying put. Brazil supplies 8M bags of coffee annually to the US, but roasters and traders are quickly pivoting to alternatives.

Many of the world’s coffee traders are now running on fumes. After a decade of relatively benign markets, the past five years have been a blur of price shocks, shipping snarls, rising labour costs, and now the extra burden of US tariffs. Smaller exporters and cooperatives face the sharpest strain, raising the question of who survives and how.

In coffee shops around the world, we’re still seeing exciting, experimental microlots for those “in the know,” and blends of lower grade Brazilian coffees for milky espresso-based drinks. Once-profitable "mid-80s" lots that balanced quality and scale have become unviable in today’s market. With the C price holding above $2/lb, many mid-tier coffees now cost as much as experimental microlots did in the past. This is eroding margins and collapsing demand, leaving specialty importers and roasters squeezed.

For many boutique green coffee traders that once shaped the rise of specialty coffee, the past year has felt like a long, slow slide into crisis. Arabica prices surged over 100% in a year – leaving boutique green coffee traders struggling to stay afloat. Inflation is up and demand for quality is down – and roasters are cutting costs. As big traders consolidate and producers go direct, mid-sized specialty traders are being squeezed out of the value chain.

Over the past year, the coffee industry has been turned on its head. Coffee prices have surged by over 100% in a year due to strains caused by climate change, political risk, and logistical chaos. Cacao hit a record $10,000 per tonne in 2024, with potential parallels emerging. Both global commodities are shaped by smallholders, speculation, and fragile supply chains.

The coffee industry is in the midst of a significant adjustment, with prices remaining consistently high for an extended period. Arabica coffee prices surpassing $4 per pound are driving a major industry shift. Roasters are adjusting blends, seeking cheaper origins, and renegotiating contracts. Producers continue to face rising costs, labour shortages, and delayed payments – proving high prices aren’t a cure-all.

Coffee prices have surged to unprecedented levels, yet for many in the industry, the biggest challenge is not simply the high cost of beans – it’s cash flow. A $2.5 trillion trade finance gap is squeezing credit, forcing lenders to hike rates and cut off smaller coffee firms. As financing dries up, smaller players are turning to venture capital and supply chain finance to survive.

Regenerative agriculture has quickly become the darling of the coffee industry. 63% of 79 agri-food giants call it a climate fix, but only 4 back farmers financially. Ironically, the smallholder farmers who pioneered this indigenous practice risk being sidelined by trends and certifications.