News & Opinion

Coffee prices are rising, and the world’s most important coffee-growing country is feeling the heat – literally. Brazil is ramping up irrigation in a bid to protect crops from worsening drought – but the environmental cost is mounting. Arabica prices hit record highs in 2025, fuelled by climate-induced shortfalls and speculation. Only 30% of farms irrigated, yet 60M hectares show potential – further spurring the push for water access.

In January 2025, La Colombe Coffee Roasters – a brand once synonymous with craft, purity, and café authenticity – launched a limited-edition Strawberry Mocha Draft Latte. RTD coffee brands are ditching origin stories for seasonal drops, wellness claims, and curated aesthetics. There were over 200 new RTD products launched in Europe in 2023 alone. Canned coffee is being reimagined as lifestyle merch – not just a beverage.

The coffee industry, a $460 billion global market, is facing an uncertain future as protectionist trade policies threaten supply chains, pricing, and consumer habits. Trump’s tariff plan puts U.S. coffee imports – worth $8.2B in 2023 – at risk, threatening price hikes and supply chain chaos . After decades of duty-free coffee, new tariffs could jolt the $460B industry, squeezing importers, retailers, and millions of daily drinkers . Mexico and Canada brace for impact as the first in line, but more could follow soon.

In a move that is drawing attention from investors and analysts alike, JDE Peet’s, the world’s second-largest coffee company, announced a €250 million share buyback programme set to be completed by the end of 2025. JDE Peet’s organic sales grew 5.3% in 2024. Yet instead of expansion, it’s prioritising a €1 billion multi-year buyback. As supermarkets push back on price hikes, is JDE Peet’s buyback a sign of confidence or a hedge against market uncertainty?

Starbucks has been making headlines left and right recently with its "Return to Starbucks" strategy and associated hard pivots. It is scrambling to regain ground in China after losing 20% market share since 2019 – 8% in 2024 alone. With Luckin and Cotti ruling the market, the coffee giant is now looking to sell a stake to stay relevant. Now, global investors and Chinese heavyweights Meituan and China Resources Group are circling as Starbucks weighs a franchise model.

For years, marketing to younger consumers was the domain of upstart brands – those willing to take risks with TikTok trends, influencer-led campaigns, and meme-driven advertising. Today, Gen Z’s $360 billion spending power has brands investing in youth-driven marketing. Dutch Bros Coffee just appointed a Gen Z and Alpha specialist to its Board of Directors. Coffee chains are borrowing beauty’s playbook – TikTok trends, influencers, and viral hype – but could this cost them loyal customers?

For decades, U.S. foreign aid has played a pivotal role in the development of the global coffee industry. The USAID aid freeze has jolted the coffee industry, halting critical projects that support farmers and supply chains. Many coffee growing countries rely on foreign aid – USAID alone funded over $45M in coffee projects from 2020-2024. This exposes coffee’s dependency problem and structural flaws.

In recent months, the global coffee market has experienced an unprecedented surge in prices, with arabica futures reaching record highs. Coffee prices hit a record high, breaking $4/lb for the first time. Trump’s recent tariff threats on Colombian coffee have exacerbated the situation. With arabica stocks down 100,000 bags, roasters face soaring costs, and retail prices could rise 20-25%.

BIALETTI, the iconic Italian brand behind the world-famous Moka Express, is on the verge of a buyout by Nuo Capital, a company founded by Stephen Cheng of the Hong Kong-based World Wide Investment Company (WWIC). Drowning in €90.3M debt, the moka pot maker faces a buyout by Hong Kong’s WWIC as coffee capsules surge. Coffee pods saw a 63% profit jump, while moka pot sales decline – convenience is winning. Bialetti joins Pirelli and Ferretti in Asia’s growing portfolio of iconic Italian brands.

Few brands have managed to transform everyday culture quite like Starbucks. Its influence stretches beyond coffee cups and into the very language of caffeine consumption. Starbucks has redefined coffee culture, raking in $36.2 billion across 40,199 stores globally. Fans love the creativity, but purists call out the twists on classics like the cortado. Its lingo builds loyalty, but Gen Z’s craving for authenticity challenges the status quo.

Dunkin’s latest marketing campaign, featuring global pop sensation Sabrina Carpenter, is a frothy mix of humour, celebrity clout, and smart product positioning. Today, 67% of consumers say humour drives their enjoyment of ads. Dunkin drinks also cost 20–30% less than Starbucks, giving Gen Z a fun, affordable reason to switch.

The best way to plan ahead is often to look back to see the patterns emerge. Today’s article offers a recap of key patterns and trends that shaped the coffee industry throughout 2024, to help craft a strategy for 2025.

The European Union’s recent decision to delay the enforcement of its landmark European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) has set the record straight on whether plans will go ahead or be scratched. EU coffee imports hit €21.9 billion in 2022, underscoring that compliance is non-negotiable. Looking to cocoa and palm oil offers the coffee industry a roadmap for smarter EUDR preparation.

Taco Bell, a brand synonymous with budget-friendly tacos and late-night cravings, is expanding into premium coffee. Its Live Más Café brings specialty drinks to the $5B coffee market, targeting younger, trend-focused consumers. Fast-food chains added 1,400 coffee outlets in 2023, with Taco Bell joining the race to compete with Starbucks and Dunkin’. Taco Bell is betting on affordable drinks to stand out in a crowded coffee space.

McDonald’s has launched a limited-time Dulce de Leche Frappé, signalling a calculated nod to the Latino community, their fastest-growing demographic in the US and a key driver of specialty coffee consumption. The frappé offers a workaround for their espresso machine troubles, with espresso drinks off the menu in several cities. With Latino spending power set to hit $2.6 trillion by 2025, McDonald’s blends cultural relevance with practicality.

Starbucks, the world’s largest café chain and a buyer of 3% of the world’s coffee, has taken a risky gamble in its approach to coffee purchasing. Starbucks cut coffee hedging from $1B in 2019 to $200M amid a 70% price surge this year. By relying on price-to-be-fixed contracts, Starbucks is shifting risk to an uncertain future. Starbucks and many small to mid-sized roasters are betting on future price drops but risk hefty costs if prices remain high.

Coffee prices have surged to their highest levels since April 1977, driven by fears over supply disruptions in top-producing nations like Brazil and Vietnam, and the anticipation of the EU Deforestation Directive (EUDR). While headlines indicate the coffee world is in shock, hasn’t it been a long time coming?

Italy’s beloved espresso, a cultural icon served at bars across the country for as little as €1, is poised to undergo a radical transformation. Espresso prices in Italy could jump 66%, reaching €2 – double the iconic €1 tradition. Global coffee prices have soared as Arabica just hit $3 per pound, driven by climate disruptions. Italy’s beloved coffee culture faces a reckoning as the €1 espresso era fades.

The UK coffee market is becoming a tricky one, tough for specialty coffee shop chains, and major players are redefining their strategies to capture consumer interest in high-traffic areas. Nero Group’s acquisition spree includes recent buys 200 Degrees and FCB Coffee. Now with 790 UK stores and over 1,100 worldwide, Nero Group is expanding fast. Specialty coffee chains are struggling across the UK, making investment and acquisitions the path to survival.