News & Opinion

In response to prospective American duties of up to 50% on a swathe of Brazilian goods – including coffee – the government has unveiled a rescue and rearmament plan for exporters: a 30bn-real (about US$5.55bn) credit line. Brazil supplies around a third of the world’s coffee and sets the tone for arabica prices. Coffee, long unsubsidised unlike other products such as wine, may be entering a new policy era.

Pistachios, once a niche nut – at least on the global scene – are now a ubiquitous component of everything from lattes and chocolate bars to ice creams and cocktails. Americans consumed 225,000 tonnes of pistachios in 2024 – more than any other country. Viral hits like “Dubai Chocolate” drove $22m in sales in just three months. This has fuelled shortages and strained supply chains from Turkey to California.

Once dismissed as the old guard’s beverage of choice – too rural, too industrial, too unkind to the planet or the stomach – dairy milk had, until now, seemingly been ousted by its plant-based successors. US oat milk sales hit $695 million by 2024, but signs point to consumers returning to dairy. Global dairy production is rising, with 325.8 million metric tonnes of milk predicted in 2025. Gen Z isn't loyal – they’re more likely than others to switch between dairy and alt-milks.

Signs of strain are emerging even in the most established corners of the global coffee industry. Coca-Cola’s $5.1bn Costa gamble is faltering, with CEO James Quincey now “rethinking” the company’s coffee strategy. Other companies are posting losses despite flat sales, joining a growing list of legacy coffee brands under pressure. Global coffee demand is forecast to fall 0.5% in 2025, showing scale offers no immunity in a shifting market.

In June, at  the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Ministerial Meeting held in Changsha, China quietly redrew the coffee trade map. China has eliminated import duties on coffee from 53 African countries. China’s coffee consumption has surged 21% annually since 2010, outpacing global growth. In contrast, the EU is tightening trade rules, positioning China as a frictionless buyer.

Earlier this month, sweeping tariffs made headlines again as US President Donald Trump, through a series of letters, warned that countries failing to strike trade deals with the US by August 1 will face increased tariffs. 16.7% of Brazil’s coffee exports go to the US – now under threat from proposed 50% tariffs. As Brazil diversifies exports to Asia and Europe, US roasters face higher prices and sourcing challenges. Tariffs on Brazil risk raising global prices and destabilising long-standing trade flows.

As global coffee consumption shows signs of cooling, brands are pouring millions into rekindling its emotional appeal. EU coffee consumption flatlined at 1.74 million tonnes between 2021 and 2023. The UK and Switzerland imported 9.1% and 8.4% less green coffee in 2023, respectively. But brands are starting to spend big to revive.

For years, Ethiopia has been synonymous with African coffee, the continent's undisputed leader in the sector. No longer. In a quiet but formidable shift, Uganda has reportedly taken the lead. Uganda reportedly exported a record 47,606 tonnes of coffee in May 2025. It has now surpassed Ethiopia to become Africa’s top coffee exporter for the first time, a success that others will seek to emulate. $1.97 billion earned from coffee exports in the past year alone is a result of government-led reforms, private sector alignment, and rising global demand.

When the CEO of one of the world’s most recognisable coffee brands makes a public prediction, it can have ripple effects – or at the very least, the industry and consumers pay attention. Arabica futures hit 305.65¢/lb, the lowest since January. Meanwhile, illycaffè’s CEO recently projected that arabica prices will stabilise between $2.50 and $3/lb over the next 15 months. Can big-brand projections sway sentiment in an already jittery coffee market?

In a familiar refrain, The J.M. Smucker Company – the parent of Folgers, Dunkin’ at Home and Café Bustelo – is preparing yet another round of retail coffee price increases this August. Smucker’s will hike coffee prices for the fourth time in a year after posting a $729m quarterly loss. Retailers are pushing back: JDE Peet’s brands have been delisted in parts of Europe. Roast-and-ground coffee consumption in North America and Europe fell 3.8% last year while prices climbed 4.6%.

Specialty coffee is grappling with a record-breaking year on the cost front. Arabica futures climbed to around $4.41 per pound in early 2025 – a level never seen before – and have remained volatile since, transforming the coffee landscape. Specialty coffee faces an identity crisis, as Gen Z consumers trade third wave for customisable iced beverages. Private equity and consolidation are reshaping the sector, putting pressure on independent actors.

“STOP buying lattes – instead invest that money and become rich.” The simplistic advice, a millennial stereotype despite plenty of backlash, is finally taking hold. Now, many are trading in their daily café latte for a home brew. As global coffee prices soar and inflation tightens wallets, 70% of coffee drinkers now brew their daily cup at home. With out-of-home consumption slipping, brands like Nestlé are cashing in on the at-home trend. The rise of home brewing is also fuelled by Gen Z’s TikTok trends, social media influencers, and new gadgets.

Nine months into Brian Niccol’s tenure as Starbucks’ CEO, the world’s largest coffee chain is facing a financial and narrative dilemma. Earnings are down nearly 50% YOY, and rivals are surging. But Starbucks insists the plan is on track and that it’s investing in long term recovery. Has the “back to Starbucks” plan simply missed its moment?

As latest political moves from the U.S. administration trigger fresh trade tensions, Brazil is quietly doubling down on its largest trading partner: China. In the 2023-24 crop year, coffee exports from Brazil to China increased by 186.1% year-on-year. Luckin is promoting Brazilian coffee as more than trade – it’s a cultural alliance.

Black Sheep Coffee, known for championing specialty robusta in an industry that prizes arabica, recently reported a 227% year-on-year surge in iced beverage sales. The reason? matcha. Gen Z is driving demand for health-forward, photogenic drinks – and matcha is the poster child. From Japanese ritual to café essential, matcha’s transformation is rewriting the coffee shop playbook.

India's coffee market is forecast to double by 2030, with revenues from coffee shops rising at nearly twice the pace of their American counterparts, showing market potential for the coffee industry. Costa Coffee is targeting 40–50 new stores annually and Coffee Island is aiming for 250 outlets by 2029. Meanwhile Western markets remain stagnant, according to the European Coffee Federation.

Specialty Coffee Expo was one for the books this year. From October 2025, the SCA’s CVA framework will replace CQI’s Q grader programme after 20 years. 10,000 Q graders now have to deal with confusion over certification costs, access, and control. Is this consolidation simply natural progress for the sector, or will a monopoly stifle innovation in coffee quality & education?

Illycaffè’s recent announcement of a 4% global price increase and consideration of establishing a U.S. roasting facility marks a significant shift in the coffee industry's approach to navigating trade tensions and climate challenges. With U.S. tariffs at 10% and climate-hit harvests pushing global prices higher, roasters face tough choices. Localised U.S. production is emerging as a potential cost-saving trend for multinationals.

The U.S. coffee industry is grappling with the implications of newly imposed tariffs that threaten to disrupt the sector's stability. A 10% blanket tariff – and potential increases – has prompted the US coffee sector to push for an exemption. The US coffee industry supports 2.2 million jobs and contributes $343 billion to the economy. Concerns over rising prices and disrupted supply chains are uniting the coffee community.