On September 5th President Donald J. Trump signed an executive order updating tariff rules in line with ongoing trade negotiations. It designates coffee as an “unavailable natural resource,” eligible for exemption but only through future trade deals. 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee have already shaken America’s market, and appear to be staying put. Brazil supplies 8M bags of coffee annually to the US, but roasters and traders are quickly pivoting to alternatives.
For centuries, matcha was a Japanese ritual, a ceremony that prized patience and restraint. Now matcha has become something else entirely: a bright green shorthand for wellness, virality, and conspicuous consumption. Japan’s matcha exports have nearly tripled in the last decade. TikTok has been driving billions of views and fuelling reported supply shortages. Much of matcha’s appeal rests on perception: the colour green signals health and wealth.
J. M. Smucker raising its prices in the wake of US tariffs raises an alarm. The custodian of Folgers, Dunkin’ and Café Bustelo has long been a bellwether for America’s coffee market. But are tariffs the cause, or the final straw for a market already in decline? Smucker’s US retail coffee profits plunged 22% last quarter, as tariffs on Brazilian coffee increased input costs. Volumes fell 2% as net pricing went up 18%, signalling that households are cutting back. Tariffs could accelerate a broader US decline in coffee demand.
Many of the world’s coffee traders are now running on fumes. After a decade of relatively benign markets, the past five years have been a blur of price shocks, shipping snarls, rising labour costs, and now the extra burden of US tariffs. Smaller exporters and cooperatives face the sharpest strain, raising the question of who survives and how.
The announced merger of Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) and JDE Peet’s has, in one stroke, redrawn the global coffee map. JDE Peet’s stock jumped over 17% on merger news, while KDP fell more than 7%. The $16bn revenue alliance creates the next biggest coffee player after Nestlé. Both firms were already racing to scale before merging.
Decaf used to be the butt of industry jokes – “death before decaf” stickers still appear at trade-show booths – but who’s still laughing? Decaf’s share of US coffee consumption climbed by 33% from 2024 to 2025, according to the NCA. Meanwhile, Swiss Water’s Q2 2025 revenue jumped 56% to CAD $67.7m. Colombian EA decaf demand is clogging trade routes and stretching global plant capacity.
In response to prospective American duties of up to 50% on a swathe of Brazilian goods – including coffee – the government has unveiled a rescue and rearmament plan for exporters: a 30bn-real (about US$5.55bn) credit line. Brazil supplies around a third of the world’s coffee and sets the tone for arabica prices. Coffee, long unsubsidised unlike other products such as wine, may be entering a new policy era.
Baristas are enjoying their moment in France, Spain, and some Eastern European countries. Where the UK once served as the European bellwether for specialty coffee growth, these countries are now relishing a delayed but pronounced boom. The coveted 2025 World Coffee Roasting Champion title went to a French roaster. In Romania, the coffee market is expected to grow by 5% each year until 2028, and in Spain ‘specialty coffee’ is high in Google searches. From Madrid to Bucharest, coffee shops are growing – but not scaling recklessly.
Pistachios, once a niche nut – at least on the global scene – are now a ubiquitous component of everything from lattes and chocolate bars to ice creams and cocktails. Americans consumed 225,000 tonnes of pistachios in 2024 – more than any other country. Viral hits like “Dubai Chocolate” drove $22m in sales in just three months. This has fuelled shortages and strained supply chains from Turkey to California.
In coffee shops around the world, we’re still seeing exciting, experimental microlots for those “in the know,” and blends of lower grade Brazilian coffees for milky espresso-based drinks. Once-profitable "mid-80s" lots that balanced quality and scale have become unviable in today’s market. With the C price holding above $2/lb, many mid-tier coffees now cost as much as experimental microlots did in the past. This is eroding margins and collapsing demand, leaving specialty importers and roasters squeezed.
Once dismissed as the old guard’s beverage of choice – too rural, too industrial, too unkind to the planet or the stomach – dairy milk had, until now, seemingly been ousted by its plant-based successors. US oat milk sales hit $695 million by 2024, but signs point to consumers returning to dairy. Global dairy production is rising, with 325.8 million metric tonnes of milk predicted in 2025. Gen Z isn't loyal – they’re more likely than others to switch between dairy and alt-milks.
The venture‑capital playbook has, for a long time, looked like this: target millennials, engineer new consumption moments, and tell a story so compelling even EBITDA looks like an afterthought. VC-backed coffee startups like Blank Street and Black Sheep are chasing scale – but is the model built to last? Some brands are selling equity fast, hoping hype will outpace cash burn – yet many lack a clear path to profitability. Coffee startups secured $600 million in funding within the first seven months of 2018, but VC funding now is slowing down.
Signs of strain are emerging even in the most established corners of the global coffee industry. Coca-Cola’s $5.1bn Costa gamble is faltering, with CEO James Quincey now “rethinking” the company’s coffee strategy. Other companies are posting losses despite flat sales, joining a growing list of legacy coffee brands under pressure. Global coffee demand is forecast to fall 0.5% in 2025, showing scale offers no immunity in a shifting market.
Once upon a time, people added milk and sugar to coffee. Now they’re adding spirulina, collagen peptides, adaptogens, protein powder, lion’s mane mushroom extract, maca root, and even raw egg yolks. TikTok-fuelled “functional coffee” trends draw Gen Z with promises of better skin, energy, and gains. 30% of consumers who take supplements opt for the powder format to improve their health without giving up their coffee. Collagen, protein, and adaptogens seem to be the new sugar and cream.
In June, at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Ministerial Meeting held in Changsha, China quietly redrew the coffee trade map. China has eliminated import duties on coffee from 53 African countries. China’s coffee consumption has surged 21% annually since 2010, outpacing global growth. In contrast, the EU is tightening trade rules, positioning China as a frictionless buyer.
Once the rallying point for a niche movement centred on the promotion of exceptional coffee and equitable trade, the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) now finds itself at a crossroads. The SCA is set to host 5 global World of Coffee events next year. Critics argue that revised cupping protocols dilute the core of “specialty.' With members ranging from major multinationals to indie cafés, the SCA now balances community ideals with commercial scale – but can it do both?
Earlier this month, sweeping tariffs made headlines again as US President Donald Trump, through a series of letters, warned that countries failing to strike trade deals with the US by August 1 will face increased tariffs. 16.7% of Brazil’s coffee exports go to the US – now under threat from proposed 50% tariffs. As Brazil diversifies exports to Asia and Europe, US roasters face higher prices and sourcing challenges. Tariffs on Brazil risk raising global prices and destabilising long-standing trade flows.
At coffee trade shows this year – the London Coffee Festival or World of Coffee, for example – non-coffee products like oat milk, matcha, sunflower‑butter lattes, and even beer are increasingly stealing the show. 75% of Gen Z coffee drinkers now prefer flavoured or customised drinks over black filter coffee. As consumer focus shifts, third-wave professionals & businesses face a stark choice: evolve or be left behind.
As global coffee consumption shows signs of cooling, brands are pouring millions into rekindling its emotional appeal. EU coffee consumption flatlined at 1.74 million tonnes between 2021 and 2023. The UK and Switzerland imported 9.1% and 8.4% less green coffee in 2023, respectively. But brands are starting to spend big to revive.
Certification is standard for baristas, roasters, and cuppers – all in pursuit of excellence. Yet curiously, one role remains neglected, often left to chance or charisma: management. Most cafés certify baristas, not bosses – yet poor leadership is what sinks businesses. Passion isn’t a substitute for process – nearly 7 out of 10 U.S. workers said they would quit their jobs over a bad manager. Meanwhile, structure sells – companies with strong management grow 30% faster.
