Products like plant milks and "functional" RTDs are emerging fast – but should coffee businesses adapt to these trends or incorporate them into their existing strategy?
More coffee businesses than ever are diversifying their product range with matcha and ready-to-drink formats – but the investment can be risky as trends come and go.
For much of the past three years, commodities have been making headlines: coffee prices “soaring,” cacao facing “structural collapse,” and olive oil becoming “liquid gold.” Each spike is framed as a crisis. Olive oil prices in parts of Europe increased by 130% from 2022 to 2024. Coffee and cacao have also hit multi-decade highs in recent years – yet consumption has largely stabilised as shoppers adjust. Crisis headlines turn staples into talking points, reinforcing ritual and value as much as they spark outrage.
Specialty coffee bags often promise radical difference – woman-owned, regenerative, youth-led, competition grade – yet the coffee beans often come from the same farms, the same harvests, sometimes even the same lots. Coffee sells itself as endlessly particular. The reality is more convergent. Over 40% of coffee consumers say ethical or environmental claims influence their purchases. The same lot can be positioned differently depending on who is buying.
Looking back, specialty coffee has long defined itself by what it has rejected. For a long time, table service was out and queues, counter ordering and a studied informality were in. The barista was central to the third wave experience. To be served at the table would have broken that intimacy and, worse, made coffee feel like dining. As coffee prices rise and home brewing improves, cafés are under pressure to justify the outing. In many cities, a flat white now costs as much as a glass of wine, shifting value from product to experience. Service is becoming the differentiator – 78% of millennials prefer spending on experiences rather than goods.
Against a background of global chaos, coffee industry news lately has been fairly predictable. The same stories recur: sustainability certifications, modest price rises, cautious store openings, incremental equipment upgrades. The industry is busy – but rarely surprising. Consolidation and cost pressure have made coffee cautious. Food giants spend just 0.4% of revenue on R&D, preferring acquisitions to experimentation. With coffee prices up 20%+ in the US since 2020, consumers are simplifying orders and sticking to familiar brands.
Coffee is a complex beverage that has long been associated with both functionality and ritual, productivity and connection, caffeine kick and flavour notes. It follows that, depending on culture, context and economic moment, expectations of both the drink and the spaces that serve it continually oscillate – cycling between convenience and the pursuit of a more meaningful experience. Drive-through chains like Dutch Bros continue to grow as consumers prioritise convenience. But connection still matters to coffee consumers. A survey highlights that 94% of consumers say companies that build authentic human connection gain a long-term competitive edge.
Convenience has long been at the heart of America’s single-serve coffee market, with Keurig’s K-Cup system leading the way. In 2024 Keurig reportedly controlled more than 80% of the US pod market – but Nespresso and Illy are gaining ground. Illy is growing at double digits in the US through premium positioning – while Nespresso opened a multi-floor “experience cathedral” in Manhattan. Pods have always targeted convenience in the US, but Nespresso, Illy and Lavazza are targeting premium positioning and lifestyle. The pod wars continue.
In an industry that markets itself as both luxurious and moral, the success of the producer can feel awkward — even threatening. Specialty coffee wants to be ethical – and exclusive: 73% of reported purchases are now labelled “sustainable." But producer success still makes specialty coffee uncomfortable. The implicit assumption is that roasters should favour those with the most to gain.
Starbucks started out selling coffee. Then it sold a “third place”: sofas, playlists and the promise of belonging. Now, it is selling something stranger – screen time. Gen Alpha now discovers brands mainly via creators, games and social platforms. Starbucks is embedding itself inside MrBeast’s Prime Video universe and Roblox instead of relying on cafés. Dutch Bros’ ultra-sweet drinks & merch drops are drive-thru hits with under-30s – pushing scarcity drops and “cute economy” tactics.
In public discourse, “supporting local” is cast as a moral act. It conjures images of farmers’ markets, family-run cafés and handmade bread purchased for the greater good. The implication is sacrifice: you pay a little more, convenience slips a little, but virtue is preserved. “Buy local” or “woman-owned” is no longer just virtuous – it’s strategic. Airports, hotels, and corporates are using local brands to tick sustainability boxes. US supplier diversity rules now make sustainability a contract-winning advantage.
Specialty coffee prides itself on being a culture of critique. Every cup is scored, dissected and discussed; every flavour note debated; every roast curve scrutinised. Feedback, in theory, is the industry’s currency. In practice, it is unevenly distributed. Producers are often hungry for guidance, while roasters are reluctant to hear it. At this year’s Global Coffee Awards, many origin-roasted coffees were rejected for vegetal and phenolic flavours – a technical flaw that better feedback could quickly fix.
For much of the past decade, specialty coffee’s promise was simple: better coffee, better brewing, and better ethics. A flat white made with traceable origins and a calibrated grinder was enough to signal taste and virtue– but that is no longer the case. Specialty coffee shops are adding bakeries, florists, and craft retail to lift spend and loyalty. During the pandemic, shoppers reported support for small farms rising nearly 1.5× more than any other value, and that preference has endured. Artisan bakery sales outpaced standard bread in 2023–24, showing demand for slower, skill-heavy production over convenience.
The act of placing an order, once a key human connection point, is increasingly mediated by a screen. Self-ordering kiosks, smartphone apps and QR-based menus have proliferated as labour costs balloon and margins tighten. 51% of customers spend more when ordering via kiosks – a clear win for operators. 84% prefer self-ordering, but that doesn’t mean they want screens everywhere. As Starbucks’ recent automation rollback shows, efficiency sells, but in a loneliness epidemic, connection still matters more than ever.
For centuries, coffee was the world’s productivity fuel. The “coffee break,” formalised in American factories in the early 20th century, was designed to keep workers alert and assembly lines moving. Energy drinks are booming, with Monster reporting record sales in 2025 reaching just over $2bn. Young consumers are shifting away from pricey coffee toward faster, stronger caffeine, and major coffee brands want in, launching caffeine hybrids and RTD lines.
India’s specialty coffee scene has come of age. But the newest symbol of its ambition, beyond its coffees, is fancy artisanal baked goods and cakes. India’s café market is set to double by 2030, pushing coffee shops to seek new profit engines beyond coffee. Pastry-led innovation is booming, from ₹330 croissants to viral “crookies,” reshaping how cafés differentiate and drive margins. Specialty coffee shops/ craft bakehouses like Subko are turning pastries into India’s next big F&B export.
For decades Colombia’s coffee identity rested on one idea: washed coffees – or “milds,” as they are known to traders. Colombia, long the world’s champion of washed coffees, has become the global hub for co-ferments and experimental lots. This is a dramatic break from decades of FNC orthodoxy. At the 2025 Global Coffee Awards, Colombian producers dominated the experimental categories.
Asia has not traditionally been thought of as the engine of global coffee demand. But that is changing fast. Its coffee demand has grown 14.5% since 2018. China’s café market jumped 58% in 2023 to 50,000+ stores, overtaking the US as the world’s largest branded coffee shop market. Indonesia’s domestic consumption has tripled since pre-pandemic years, and India’s coffee industry is set to double by 2030.
Indonesia has long been known as one of the world’s great coffee origins. Increasingly, it is becoming one of its largest consumers. Indonesia’s coffee consumption has tripled since before the pandemic, making it the world’s fifth-largest coffee consumer. A boom in RTD, mobile takeaway orders and “grab-to-go” kiosks has pushed demand. As Indonesia becomes both a major producer and drinker, it offers a blueprint for other origins driving domestic consumption.
Last week, a laminated store notice at Dunkin’ Donuts allegedly instructed staff to fill iced drinks with more ice and less liquid. On anonymous Facebook groups and Reddit forums, furious customers accused the chain of trying to deceive customers by cutting corners. The news reveals that consumers’ tolerance for shrinkflation is waning. In a market where 79% of consumers are trading down, trends like these can erode consumer trust and loyalty. A recent study by McKinsey found price pressure is global consumers’ no.1 concern.
