For years, the coffee bar has been a testing ground for consumer habits. Plant milks, WiFi, iced drinks, matcha, drive-thru, and mobile ordering are just some of the trends we’ve seen. Now – and largely since the pandemic – cafés are navigating another shift: the move toward cashless payments. More shops are putting up “card only” signs, citing speed, hygiene and safety. Cash is fading fast – in Europe it’s fallen from 79% to 59% of in-store payments, with cashless transactions set to triple by 2030. Handling notes can eat up 4-15% per transaction, making card-only a good business option. But even as cafés digitise, 3% of UK adults remain cash-dependent.
The specialty-coffee trade has long prized human judgment – producers’, green buyers’, roasters’, baristas’. Now algorithms are edging their way in. From cupping tables to espresso bars, algorithms now grade, roast, and brew – promising consistency and cutting waste. At the same time, AI also raises fears of homogenised flavour and lost craft. Studies show AI could outperform humans in 50% of tasks by 2068 – but specialty coffee relies on a strong human component.
For many boutique green coffee traders that once shaped the rise of specialty coffee, the past year has felt like a long, slow slide into crisis. Arabica prices surged over 100% in a year – leaving boutique green coffee traders struggling to stay afloat. Inflation is up and demand for quality is down – and roasters are cutting costs. As big traders consolidate and producers go direct, mid-sized specialty traders are being squeezed out of the value chain.
In 2025, leveraged buyouts (LBOs) have become the lifeblood of global food and beverage deal-making. From the UK and US to South Korea and Colombia, coffee shops are being swallowed up by private equity – one leveraged buyout at a time. In the UK, public debt hit 95.8% of GDP in early 2025 – opening the doors for a PE transformation of its coffee landscape. As scale is increasingly trumps artisanship, local cafés and specialty outfits are becoming portfolio assets.
The U.S. coffee industry is grappling with the implications of newly imposed tariffs that threaten to disrupt the sector's stability. A 10% blanket tariff – and potential increases – has prompted the US coffee sector to push for an exemption. The US coffee industry supports 2.2 million jobs and contributes $343 billion to the economy. Concerns over rising prices and disrupted supply chains are uniting the coffee community.
Few sectors are as globally enmeshed – and as politically exposed – as coffee. In recent weeks, Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on coffee imports have sent shockwaves through the industry. Arabica prices recently surged to $4.30/lb – only to later drop 60 cents amid tariff panic. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs (and the subsequent pause) is reshuffling global sourcing, including for coffee. However, uncertainty is the real tax – and few can afford it.
For the past decade, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has seen an unprecedented boom in coffee consumption. Dubai is fast becoming the launchpad for coffee brands eyeing the GCC’s booming $6.84 billion market. With a 50% rise in exhibitors at World of Coffee Dubai 2025, the city is cementing its role as the region’s coffee hub. Coffee brands are using the UAE to crack – and scale – the GCC coffee code.
For many coffee professionals, barista competitions represent the pinnacle of the specialty coffee industry, and many have built a career off the back of their competition success. But as new generations enter the sector, the prestige is shifting. In recent years, SCA Expo and WoC events have seen a notably smaller audience for their competitions.
Luckin Coffee's new chocolate-alcohol latte is a window into the future of coffee, where a wide range of customisable flavours and a sense of "novelty" could become more important than the coffee itself.
The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has recently announced it will be adjusting the price differentials for coffee deliveries from Colombia, Kenya, Costa Rica, and Guatemala. The amendments are effective from today, 26 January 2024, for March 2026 contracts and onwards. What does this mean for the coffee industry?
The global coffee industry has shifted tremendously in the last 12 months. Looking ahead, we decided to set out five words that we think will define the coffee industry in 2024.
After acquiring Matthew Algie in 2016 and Capitol Foods in 2018, Tchibo is finally officially merging its UK & Ireland operations with the two existing local brands – but will be keeping the Matthew Algie brand.
Last week, De’Longhi S.p.A. acquired a 41% stake in La Marzocco from its parent company, De’Longhi Industrial S.A. This is yet another acquisition which points to growing consolidation in the espresso machine market.
Last week, Chobani acquired La Colombe. With such remarkable synergies between the two brands, is going from yoghurt to coffee that crazy?
Beanless coffee offers an alternative supply chain model for the industry. If developed at scale, it could have significant implications – but it's a little way off that for now.
Extensive research into coffee's health benefits shows wide-ranging positive impacts – a very different story than was being told 20 years ago.
Cold coffee innovation hits the at-home market
David Beckham can drive Nespresso sales where George Clooney can't - by appealing to entirely new consumer demographics and using digital channels
As US supermarket coffee sales fall to below pre-pandemic levels, ecommerce retains a strong grip on the market. Coffee roasters must consider how to approach this new retail landscape.
Starting next year, telecommunications and broadband internet provider BT will begin selling coffee machines under its mobile and retail division, EE. This in a bid to boost growth and relevance.
