- Baristas and roasters are becoming more selective as the plant-based milk category matures.
- Plant-based foods generated US$8.1 billion in US retail sales in 2024, with 59% of households purchasing at least one plant-based product.
- Coffee shops are increasingly choosing alternative milks based on flavour compatibility, performance and the coffee they serve.
For much of the past decade, oat milk has been the undisputed dairy alternative of choice in specialty coffee. It solved many of the challenges that had limited earlier plant-based milks – as coffee shops embraced oat milk, consumers followed, transforming it from a niche product into the industry’s default alternative to dairy.
Today, however, that dominance is beginning to be questioned. Oat milk is no longer the disruptive product it once was, while the plant-based category it helped create has become considerably larger and more competitive, and improvements in other plant-based milks are creating more choice than ever before.
For some consumers and coffee professionals, there is also a more fundamental issue: they do not always want oat milk’s flavour to dominate the drink. Coffee shops remain committed to plant-based alternatives, but cracks are beginning to emerge in oat milk’s position as the unquestioned default.
How oat milk became specialty coffee’s default
Oat milk arrived at a time when coffee shops were searching for a plant-based milk capable of delivering the texture, steaming performance and consistency needed for espresso-based drinks.
Brands also successfully positioned oat milk as a premium coffee ingredient through specialty coffee shops before expanding into retail. Strong branding, close alignment with baristas and a sense of novelty helped it stand apart from earlier alternatives.
Justin Morehead is the CEO of Harris Woolf Almonds. He believes that oat milk initially succeeded as a dairy milk alternative because it solved several problems simultaneously.
“Oat milk earned its position because it solved several problems for specialty coffee all at once. It delivered a creamy mouthfeel, steamed reliably, produced attractive microfoam, and offered a relatively neutral flavor profile that worked well in milk-based coffee drinks,” he says.
“For coffee shop operators, consistency is critical, and oat milk generally performed better behind the espresso machine than many of the early generations of almond and soy beverages.”
Oat milk’s growth also reflected successful and often controversial branding, widespread coffee shop adoption and changing consumer attitudes towards plant-based diets. Crucially, it also made familiar drinks such as lattes and flat whites more accessible to consumers who did not drink dairy.
This success is also reflected in broader purchasing behaviour, and growing acceptance of plant-based alternatives. In 2024, plant-based foods generated US$8.1 billion in retail sales in the US alone – with 59% of households purchasing at least one plant-based product – highlighting how mainstream the category has become.
“Once major specialty coffee chains embraced oat milk, it quickly became the default option that many consumers expected to see on a menu,” says Justin.
Perhaps oat milk’s greatest achievement, however, was creating a market where consumers expected coffee shops to offer high-quality plant-based alternatives.
However, that success also helped create a larger, more competitive market – meaning that oat milk is no longer competing in the relatively empty field that fuelled its original rise.
Oat milk is no longer the obvious choice
As the plant-based milk category has matured, coffee shops and consumers have gained considerably more choice. Oat milk may still perform reliably behind the bar, but performance alone is no longer enough to guarantee its position as the automatic first choice.
Earlier this year, the Global Coffee Awards replaced oat milk with Harris Woolf’s Almond Milk 2.0 as the official milk for its competition programme in the US and Canada, after judges concluded it better showcased the coffees being evaluated.
Andrea Melo, Chief Operating Officer of the Global Coffee Awards, says flavour was central to the decision.
“When judging coffee, our priority is always allowing the coffee itself to shine. During blind tastings, we found that many oat milks introduced flavour characteristics that became distracting, particularly with lighter and more delicate coffees,” she says.
For the judges, the issue was relatively simple: some oat milks were contributing so much flavour that the drink became oat-led rather than coffee-led.
“The [almond] milk we selected delivered the texture and functionality we needed, while allowing the coffee’s own character to remain at the centre of the cup.”
Justin believes this reflects a broader shift in how coffee professionals assess plant-based milk.
“I think there is growing awareness of how much influence the milk component has on the final beverage,” he says. “As coffee professionals continue to refine their understanding of flavor balance, many are paying closer attention to whether the milk complements or competes with the coffee.”
Oat milk’s recognisable flavour can be part of its appeal, but it can also dominate lighter roasted or more delicate coffees.
“This is not necessarily a flaw, as some consumers enjoy those flavours,” says Justin. “But it does raise an important question: Is the milk showcasing the coffee, or is it becoming the primary flavour driver?”
Meanwhile, improvements in formulation and processing have narrowed the performance gap between oat milk and competing alternatives. Oat has not suddenly become unsuitable for coffee; it has simply lost some of the advantages that once helped it stand apart.
A more competitive future for plant-based milk
Oat milk is unlikely to disappear from menus any time soon. Oatly recently reported 15.2% YoY revenue growth in the second quarter of 2026, underlining that demand for oat-based products remains substantial even as competition increases.
However, the company has expanded well beyond oat milk into categories including oat-based yoghurt, cooking products and frozen desserts. That broader positioning has helped to make Oatly a mainstream food brand, but has also diluted the specialist, coffee-led appeal that originally made its Barista Edition products feel distinctive.
As alternative milks continue to improve, coffee shops are becoming more willing to look beyond oat milk when choosing what to serve. Rather than relying on one product because it is the established category leader, operators increasingly have credible alternatives that can compete on flavour, texture and functionality.
For Harris Woolf, this demand has driven the development of Almond Milk 2.0, which was designed specifically to address the performance expectations of specialty coffee professionals.
Justin believes that shift will continue as consumers expect more specialty plant-based products, and manufacturers move towards satisfying this demand.
“Different coffees have different flavour profiles, and different plant-based milks bring different strengths. A plant-based milk that performs exceptionally well in a dark-roast cappuccino may not be the ideal match for a lightly roasted single-origin espresso,” he says.
“As alternative milk offerings continue to improve, I think more coffee shops will evaluate them through the same lens they use for coffee itself: selecting the right ingredient for the desired customer experience.”
Oat milk’s greatest contribution to the coffee sector may have been opening milk-based coffee to an entirely new group of consumers. For people who did not drink dairy, flat whites, lattes and other milk-based coffees, coffee had previously been largely off the table; oat milk changed that.
Importantly, its success also created a much larger market for alternatives – encouraging manufacturers to develop products capable of competing on texture, functionality and flavour.
The question is therefore less whether oat milk will remain on menus and more whether it will continue to be the automatic first choice. For some consumers and coffee professionals, its distinctive flavour is becoming a reason to explore alternatives, rather than accept oat by default.
Oat milk may not disappear from coffee shops – but its position as the unquestioned default is becoming far less certain.
