- Craft beer’s decline may offer an early warning for specialty coffee as markets mature.
- In 2024, US craft brewery closures began outpacing openings, signalling the end of a major period of growth.
- The businesses most likely to endure may be those that prioritise strong identities over constant novelty.
Over the last two decades, the US craft beer industry transformed from a niche movement into a cultural phenomenon. Thousands of breweries opened, consumers embraced increasingly experimental products, and businesses competed to offer the newest and most distinctive releases.
Yet the industry’s fortunes have shifted. In 2024, brewery closures began to outpace openings for the first time since 2005, reflecting a market that has moved from rapid expansion to consolidation. And while consumer demand for craft beer remains significant, many businesses are now competing in a far more challenging environment.
While coffee and beer remain fundamentally different products, some industry professionals believe the trajectory of craft beer offers valuable lessons for specialty coffee. One key distinction is frequency of consumption – according to the National Coffee Association, roughly two-thirds of American adults drink coffee each day.
However, the greatest warning may not be oversaturation or declining demand – but what happens when consumers eventually stop chasing novelty.
Growth creates new challenges
The rapid expansion of craft beer created opportunities for innovation, but it also introduced new pressures. For years, growth appeared almost limitless – the number of US craft breweries grew from fewer than 2,000 in 2010 to more than 9,500 by the early 2020s.
As competition intensified and consumer preferences evolved, growth began to slow. Closures increased, new openings declined, and many operators found themselves competing for the same customers.
Specialty coffee has experienced a similar evolution. New roasteries continue to emerge, experimental processing methods have become increasingly common, and consumers have access to more origins, varieties, and brewing methods than ever before.
Erik Busch, owner and roaster at LongStory Coffee in Illinois, believes specialty coffee is beginning to exhibit some similar characteristics. He says that the first thing that caught his attention was experimental coffees that began emerging a few years ago.
“As I was moving from a ten-year career in craft beer to opening my own specialty coffee roastery and café, I was already experimenting with barrel-aged coffee – at the same time, I was noticing discussion around co-fermented and specialty fermented coffees,” he says.
“Those trends reminded me of barrel-aged beers, wild ales, and fruit-fermented beers.”
Erik stops short of suggesting that specialty coffee has reached the same level of saturation as craft beer. In his local market, he notes that there are still significantly fewer coffee roasters than breweries.
However, he believes the industry is following a familiar path.
“I do believe we are witnessing an increase in roastery openings that is similar to the 2010-2015 trends of craft beer,” he says.
“We haven’t hit the peak yet. This means there is still time for things to change before oversaturation happens. But if things don’t change, given enough time on the same trajectory, it will follow a similar path.”
For many businesses, growth has become synonymous with innovation. New processing methods, limited releases, and increasingly differentiated products have helped specialty coffee maintain excitement and attract consumer attention.
Yet craft beer demonstrates that rapid growth can eventually create its own challenges. The lesson is not simply that growth eventually slows – it is that markets built on rapid expansion and constant innovation can become vulnerable when consumer behaviour changes.
As brewery closures increase and consolidation accelerates, many operators are discovering that novelty alone is rarely enough to sustain long-term growth.
Consumers eventually stop chasing novelty
One of the most significant lessons from craft beer is that consumers rarely remain in a constant state of exploration.
According to Erik, craft beer drinkers initially embraced experimentation, moving from traditional styles into increasingly specialised and unusual products. Over time, however, many consumers began returning to simpler and more familiar options.
“At a certain point, breweries went from focusing on year-round beers that showed constant growth to constant special-release beers that were one-and-done in the market,” he says.
“The problem was that people grew tired of this.”
Part of this shift was driven by consumers discovering products they didn’t enjoy. In other cases, drinkers simply developed a clearer understanding of their preferences. The result was a return to familiar styles, including lagers, pale ales, and traditional IPAs.
Erik believes specialty coffee may eventually experience a similar transition – and that the lessons from craft beer may provide an insight into specialty coffee’s short term future..
Today, consumers can explore a vast range of origins, processing methods, and flavour profiles. Co-fermented coffees, anaerobic fermentations, and highly distinctive lots generate significant attention within specialty coffee circles.
However, the same dynamics that shaped craft beer may eventually influence coffee purchasing decisions.
“Specialty coffee is finally available to everyone,” Erik says, which has led consumers to the same “trial stage” that beer has experienced.
“We just have to be careful because, if trends match the craft beer industry, consumers will start going back to our core roasts and those expensive exotic coffees will grow stale on the shelves and hurt our cash flow.”
Rather than abandoning specialty coffee altogether, Erik predicts that many consumers will settle into a smaller group of preferred coffees while reserving experimentation for occasional purchases.
“I think the trend will move from experimentation to people having two or three coffees in their homes,” he says.
“Then, on the weekends, they will have their treats of either something new or something more expensive.”
Strong brands outlast trends
If craft beer offers a warning to specialty coffee, it is not that businesses should avoid trends altogether. Instead, it is that trends should complement a company’s identity rather than replace it.
Many breweries struggled when they abandoned the products and values that originally attracted customers in favour of chasing every new opportunity. Others built their businesses around a clear proposition and remained committed to it, even as consumer preferences shifted.
Erik believes coffee businesses should adopt a similar approach.
“I don’t believe there is a risk to building your business around a trend, as long as you aren’t constantly chasing a new trend,” he says.
“The problem with craft beer was that some legacy breweries saw what they believed was easy money in trends. They gave up on their core values and alienated their long-time customers.”
This perspective also extends to categories that are currently attracting significant attention, including matcha.
Rather than viewing matcha as a direct competitor to coffee, Erik sees it as an opportunity for cafés to diversify and remain relevant as consumer preferences evolve. However, he argues that businesses should approach these products with the same care and attention they apply to coffee.
“If you focus on high-scoring microlot coffees, don’t just buy a wholesale matcha because you think it will sell,” he says.
“Source your matcha like you source your coffee. Prepare your matcha like you prepare your coffee. Educate your customers about the matcha like you do your coffee.”
The broader lesson is that mature markets tend to reward consistency as much as innovation.
While specialty coffee continues to benefit from experimentation and consumer curiosity, craft beer suggests that novelty alone is unlikely to sustain a business indefinitely.
As consumers become more familiar with specialty coffee, the winners may not be those offering the most unusual products, but those that build strong brands, maintain clear identities, and adapt to changing preferences without losing sight of what made them successful in the first place.
