- US oat milk sales hit $695 million by 2024, but signs point to consumers returning to dairy
- Global dairy production is rising, with 325.8 million metric tonnes of milk predicted in 2025
- Gen Z isn’t loyal – they’re more likely than others to switch between dairy and alt-milks
ONCE dismissed as the old guard’s beverage of choice – too rural, too industrial, too unkind to the planet or the stomach – dairy milk had, until now, seemingly been ousted by its plant-based successors.
Oat milk alone captured the movement, growing US retail sales to $695 million by 2024, a 28% increase over two years, according to data firm SPINS.
But today, the tide seems to be turning. Vogue Australia recently reported a growing return to cow’s milk, citing anecdotal café behaviour and data from RaboResearch projecting a rise in global milk output to 325.8 million metric tonnes in 2025, up from 323.2 million the year prior. Milk is back, at least by volume.
The return is subtle but visible. In North American and European coffee scenes, dairy is regaining traction not only for its taste and texture but also as a kind of aesthetic rebellion.
“We’re definitely hearing from customers that more people are returning to dairy milk,” says Ed Towers, third generation dairy farmer at Brades Farm Dairy. “Many of the shops seem to have streamlined their alternative milk offerings to just oat and a gluten free option. A lot of this shift seems to be driven by health-conscious consumers – particularly those using tools like continuous glucose monitors like Zoe – who are beginning to reject ultra-processed foods and are seeking simpler, more natural options.”
The over-engineered complexity of “mylk” options – each with its blendability issues, foaming quirks, and flavour quirks – may have finally exhausted a critical mass of consumers. In a world where politics and wellness have increasingly intertwined, some are finding comfort in the straightforward and familiar, with price a usual suspect as well.
“I’ve noticed a slight shift back toward dairy in Czechia, especially in smaller towns or rural areas where plant-based alternatives are less available, or simply because the demand is lower,” says Alan Jarrar, Co-founder of Jokes Aside Coffee Roasters, Co-owner of STAV SE Espresso Bar and the meme magician behind Instagram’s @50percentarabica.
“While oat milk remains popular in specialty coffee shops in cities, factors like price, accessibility, and a pushback against processed foods seem to be influencing some consumers to return to traditional dairy. Cultural familiarity and local sourcing also play a role, especially as people become more conscious of where their food comes from.”
It is not just anecdotal. Data from the UK’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) shows that after the 2023 UK price squeeze and rising costs that threatened the country’s dairy sector, retail milk prices in 2025 are expected to stay stable, with household penetration remaining high.
In 2024, US dairy producers sold roughly 0.8% more milk than the year before, marking the first annual increase since 2009, when prices were at historic lows, according to USDA data. Sales of raw, unpasteurised milk also climbed by double digits – a worrying development given its risk of transmitting serious infections – though it accounts for just a small fraction of total milk sales.
The wellness wave and gym-goers obsession with protein has taken over dairy shelves in supermarkets, with some calling it “the perfect recovery tool” for sore muscles, and CNN listing it as great for hydration in its fitness column.
As it turns out, the dairy cow may not be obsolete just yet. But beyond health and fitness, politics, culture, and social currency also play a role in this shift.
A historically cultural and political product
To understand the resurgence of dairy, one must examine the cultural context.
Milk has always been more than just a drink – it’s a symbol. The “Got Milk?” campaign, launched in 1993 by the California Milk Processor Board, became one of the most iconic marketing efforts in US history. Celebrity milk moustaches were a badge of health and wholesomeness, peaking in cultural influence during the late ’90s and early 2000s – an era that, perhaps not coincidentally, predated today’s polarised consumer identities.
Dairy milk’s recent comeback coincides with a broader cultural moment, particularly in the United States, where a wave of nostalgic traditionalism is sweeping through political discourse. In Republican circles, “MAGA” has now been joined by “MAHA” (“Make America Healthy Again”), a subset of health-conscious conservatism promoting raw milk, pasture-raised meat, and ancestral diets. America’s protein obsession combined with this political wave is bringing cow’s milk back.
Figures like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent, have helped mainstream once-fringe wellness beliefs, some of which include pro-dairy positions – at least when it’s grass-fed, unprocessed, and “real”.
“Without being sure, I think it may be possible that the return to dairy milk is influenced in part by broader cultural trends that value tradition and simplicity, especially in countries like the US where food can carry political or identity-related meaning,” says Alan.
“While some groups may associate dairy with nostalgia or ‘real food,’ it’s not always a political statement – sometimes it’s just about taste, price, or availability. In Czechia, the shift seems more practical than ideological so far.”
Nostalgia marketing is also a successful brand strategy, with studies finding that 76% of UK consumers are attracted to sweets that remind them of their childhood, and that 2 out of 5 German consumers are interested in flavours that remind them of their childhood.
“It feels more like a reawakening of interest in real, whole foods,” says Ed. “People want to understand what they’re eating, how it’s made, and where it comes from.”
“There’s a growing discomfort with processed or manufactured alternatives, and dairy – particularly from transparent, farmer-owned sources – offers reassurance and traceability, farmers are important not just for producing food but also caring for the animals and environment, I personally feel farm owned brands have much better accountability and therefore incentives to work towards the right thing for the planet, cows and consumer.”
The “back to dairy” shift reflects a deeper suspicion of hyper-processed, industrial foods – ironically, the exact criticism once levelled at Big Dairy by plant-based proponents. Now, alternative milks face the same scrutiny. Oat milk, for example, is increasingly criticised for its high glycaemic index and added oils.
Meanwhile, dairy brands have begun rebranding: milk is now “regenerative,” cows are “climate heroes,” and butter is now a “superfood.”
Europe has not been immune to this rethinking. In France, where dairy never really left, full-fat milk and yoghurt have regained traction among younger consumers. Beyond the US and Europe, dairy is established and growing. In Southeast Asia and India, the consumption of dairy products is growing by 5 to 6% per year. In Latin America, this growth is stronger: from 2 to 3% per year.
“Nigeria still spends about $1.5 billion every year importing milk and dairy products,” says Latifah Aitse Lawal, livestock project manager at NIRSAL Connect.
“So the issue has never been interest or demand, it has been access, affordability, and availability of quality dairy, especially fresh milk. But things are changing. There is now a bigger push to reduce those imports and grow our local dairy sector. Efforts are being made to improve the dairy value chain, from breed improvement, to year-round pasture production, to structured milk collection.”
Overall, the global dairy sector – including dairy milk – is still thriving and in the Global North, where its popularity may have shown signs of waning for a while, it’s gaining traction again. The result is a more complicated landscape where dairy and plant-based milks now compete not only on taste and ethics, but on semiotics – what your choice says about you.
Less rigid food identities & embracing dairy back into the fold
All of this coincides with a larger cooling of the once-explosive plant-based milk sector. While the global market for dairy alternatives is still expected to grow – projected to reach US$75.3 Billion by 2030 – that growth has slowed.
Brands like Oatly, once riding high on market hype, have faced falling share prices and consumer fatigue. Are many customers quietly switching back to dairy – or at least drinking less of both?
The pendulum swing is partly generational. For younger consumers, plant-based milks were once a badge of modernity. Millennials in particular took a hard stance, with many making dairy milk alternatives part of their identity. It’s become a running joke. “Today we have macadamia, brazil nut, banana and elk,” says Pooja Tripathi on her satirical critique of modern coffee consumers Instagram channel winnie the pooj. To which her customer answers “No breast milk?”
Incidentally, breast milk flavoured ice-cream is now hitting the shelves, showing there is a clear market for the so-called wellness benefits of raw milk, human breast milk, or other similar products. What was once a subculture is going mainstream.
But Gen Z, paradoxically, may be less ideological about food than millennials, and more fluid when it comes to identity. Eugene Healey, a brand consultant popular on TikTok, argues that post-millenials are “brand fluid.” 2022 research found that young consumers are consuming more dairy than they were three years prior.
“From what I observe, Gen Z possibly tends to be more flexible with their choices, occasionally switching between dairy and plant-based options based on context — taste, mood, health, or ethics,” says Alan. “This open-minded, less dogmatic approach seems to be reshaping demand toward variety and personalisation, pushing brands to offer a wider range of options rather than focusing on one category.”
The rise of “menu fluidity” means that rigid food identities are less in vogue. In fact, Gen Z’s emphasis on personalised drink orders – more foam, less syrup, half-shot, extra hot – often defaults to milk-based options due to their better texture and customisability in café settings.
“Dairy remains the benchmark for texture, foam, and consistency in coffee,” says Ed. “Alternative milks have made progress, but milk is a highly complex natural liquid, and some substitutes rely on added oils or emulsifiers to mimic dairy’s performance – which can raise questions around nutritional value and processing.”
“Gen Z is highly quality-driven, and while they seek personalisation, they also value products that perform well and align with broader health and sustainability values.”
At the same time, global economic pressures have made price a bigger factor. Cow’s milk, despite rising input costs, remains cheaper per litre than many almond or oat alternatives. In developing markets, where food inflation has hit hardest, dairy’s ubiquity and familiarity give it a distinct advantage. In India and China, milk is experiencing modest volume growth driven by affordability and tradition.
“Real innovation is happening in how dairy is being presented,” says Latifah, about the Nigerian market. “Smaller packs, fun flavours, convenient grab-and-go formats like yoghurt bottles and parfaits, these are becoming more popular across different income levels.”
Dairy milk’s return does not necessarily mean the end of the alternative milk era. Instead, it suggests that food choices are becoming more pragmatic, less ideological, and increasingly shaped by cultural and economic undercurrents.
Coffee Intelligence
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