- The coveted 2025 World Coffee Roasting Champion title went to a French roaster
- In Romania, the coffee market is expected to grow by 5% each year until 2028, and in Spain ‘specialty coffee’ is high in Google searches
- From Madrid to Bucharest, coffee shops are growing – but not scaling recklessly
BARISTAS are enjoying their moment in France, Spain, and some Eastern European countries. Where the UK once served as the European bellwether for specialty coffee growth, these countries are now relishing a delayed but pronounced boom.
The diversity of coffee styles is expanding. Funky anaerobics and natural process lots are now regular menu features. For baristas and trainers, it’s still a legitimate, respected job – a sign that these markets are in the “romantic” stage of third wave growth, reminiscent of the US in 2014, or the UK circa 2016–2017.
Specialty coffee markets that had their third wave “golden era” – in the US and the UK for example – are now saturated, creating market cannibalisation and heightened competition between brands. In other parts of Europe, many countries are still at the beginning of that growth curve. Although the third wave hit at the same time, it’s only really starting to gain momentum now.
“In 2015–2016, Romania’s specialty coffee scene was just beginning to wake up,” says Alin Laiu, Head of Coffee at Baroque Coffee Roasters. “We weren’t thinking about competition between cafés or roasteries. We were a handful of people chasing knowledge and sharing it with anyone curious enough to taste something new.”
“Back then, growth wasn’t about market share – it was about being the most passionate ambassador for coffee, carrying the deepest understanding and knowledge. It was, and still is, a culture-driven industry, and that spirit still drives us today. Collaboration was our growth strategy – building a shared trend rather than fighting for territory. Today, specialty coffee is everywhere. New shops open almost weekly.”
The excitement is tangible. In Romania, the coffee market is expected to grow by 5% each year until 2028. Between 2013 and 2021, the number of specialty coffee shops and roasteries in Romania increased from only three to more than 120, while Hungary is now home to over 150 specialty coffee businesses. In cities like Cluj-Napoca and Bucharest, cafés have become community hubs, not just trend incubators.
In France, the 2025 World Coffee Roasting Champion title went to Mikaël Portannier, a milestone for a country historically associated more with bistros than brew ratios. Spain, long known for its love of torrefacto (sugar-roasted beans), is slowly shifting consumer palates toward higher-quality, lighter roasts. Meanwhile, Eastern Europe is experiencing a coffee consumption spike, and embracing specialty coffee – notably Romania, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Bulgaria.
According to Tanat Coffee’s 2025 market trends report, the French coffee market is undergoing a significant transformation with the emergence of specialty cafés. This trend is also marked by a 20% increase in the number of coffee shops between 2019 and 2023, reaching almost 750 network-affiliated outlets in France. The share of specialty coffee in the French coffee market has increased from 1-2% in 2017 to about 4% in 2020.
“Much like the UK in 2017, Paris is now seeing a new wave of specialty coffee shops, and this momentum is spreading across the rest of the country, something that wasn’t happening before,” says Thomas Clement, Roaster at TANAT Coffee (formerly KAWA).
In Spain, a similar curve is unfolding. Madrid and Barcelona now host dozens of third wave outlets, a growth fuelled by interest in better quality coffee and experiencing the beverage in a different way, but also heavily linked to changing social currency. CBI finds that although there are no official statistics on the Spanish imports of specialty coffee, one stand-out indicator is the use of ‘specialty coffee’ as a search term in Google.
“I’d say Spain is in that romantic phase of third wave coffee taking off, but with a twist,” says Dara Santana, Founder of Dart Caffeine.
“What sets it apart is the speed: social media and global travel are accelerating curiosity, so what took the UK years is condensing into months here. You can feel it in how fast cafés, consumers, and even hotels are embracing ‘specialty’ as a cultural marker. And now we also see cafés embedded in gyms, yoga studios, bookstores, and flower shops – proof that people want to enjoy their hobbies with a quality coffee in hand.”
Culture, caution, and the question of scale
But will they follow the UK’s trajectory, which has now plateaued? In some ways, these markets may be more resilient – or at least more reluctant to scale unsustainably.
Cultural differences could hold the key. In France, a country infamous for long lunches and workweeks capped at 35 hours, the rush to hyper-growth is often seen as gauche. Many operators seem content with local recognition in cities like Lyon or Lille, with little appetite for building an empire. Taxation and bureaucracy, too, play a role. France is infamous for its high level of bureaucracy, with a complex business environment that is expensive to navigate, which limits incentives for rapid scaling.
“France has always had a strong café culture, and today it is evolving with smaller, community-driven specialty shops,” says Thomas. “The entrepreneurs behind them come from diverse backgrounds, sometimes through complete career changes, which brings fresh energy. Growth is often careful and deliberate, shaped by work–life balance and social protections, with ambition expressed through quality and community rather than rapid expansion.”
The same holds in Spain, where coffee shops often double as lifestyle statements. Roasters like Right Side Coffee in Barcelona, Hola Coffee in Madrid, or Mistral in Mallorca have earned national respect without any obvious hunger for mass-market domination. In Spain, while growth is good, respectability is better. For many in the sector, becoming a regional staple – not a national chain – is the goal. Despite this, Dara observes more of an appetite for scaling and leveraging investment in Madrid.
“Spain’s pace and bureaucracy usually slow big growth, but Madrid is an exception: investors and lifestyle entrepreneurs are driving a café boom,” says Dara. “Many of these spaces are more aesthetic than coffee-driven, often led by people outside the sector and designed for social media traction. It’s less about passionate baristas opening shops, and more about visibility and influence. Still, Spain’s tradition of enjoying coffee as a moment of calm, conversation, or reading gives the culture a grounding that can balance the hype.”
Romania offers a slightly different dynamic. While wages are lower and margins tighter, entrepreneurial ambition is more visible. The country’s younger workforce, many of whom speak fluent English and consume international coffee media, is pushing the industry forward. Roasteries like Origo and Bob Coffee Lab have achieved regional fame while keeping strong ties with producers and prioritising education. Yet even here, there is awareness of the ceiling.
“Not everyone survives in this market,” says Alin. “I’d estimate over 80% of new concepts close within their first year. Some roasteries can’t even meet the minimum sales needed to survive after twelve months. Now, with new government taxes already in effect, challenges are set to intensify, likely affecting quality from green bean to final cup.”
Can oversaturation be avoided?
The question now is whether this third wave will plateau as it has in more mature markets. In the UK and US, over-saturation, slim margins, and investor fatigue have begun to thin the herd.
Brands that scaled too quickly or invested too heavily in aesthetics over substance are now retrenching or exiting entirely. The same fate could await Bucharest, Toulouse, or Madrid if expectations shift too aggressively from passion to profit.
“Competition is fierce in Romania, but preparedness is slipping,” says Alin. “Many newcomers arrive from outside the industry, hiring teams with minimal training and consultants who are even less prepared. Without a clear vision of quality standards, it’s impossible to grow sustainably. Roasteries are in the same situation – hundreds now operate in Romania, with more opening each year. Yet customers are drinking more mediocre coffee than ever, and overall quality feels like it’s sliding backwards.”
“Oversaturation is real, especially for those who see a coffee shop as a community space, but start out without a solid three-year plan and backup funds. Yet competition isn’t inherently bad – it keeps us sharp and drives professional growth. The market is still expanding, bringing specialty coffee to small towns and into places we never thought we’d reach. But the greater concern is the shrinking pool of young talent. Each year, fewer baristas join the scene. To me, that reflects not just an economic problem, but a deeper lack of appreciation and support for passion itself.”
Yet these markets might dodge the worst of the hype cycle simply because they’re not built to chase it.
“Spain and its neighbors could avoid the same saturation if they stay true to context,” says Dara. “Here, coffee culture is woven into food, wine, and social rituals – not just caffeine delivery. If specialty integrates with that heritage rather than copying Anglo models, it can grow more sustainably and with its own identity.”
A slower growth mindset – born from culture, tax policy, or just a different idea of success – might be their greatest strength. After all, the house of cards only collapses if everyone is trying to become a macro-roaster. If local cafés remain focused on quality, community, and sustainability, they may never have to face the hard fall that so many early adopters did.
“In France we’re entering a new cycle with more coffee shops and micro-roasteries,” says Thomas. “Natural adjustments will happen, yet both entry-level specialty and the high-end segment are growing. France’s deep attachment to gastronomy and transparency may help the market evolve differently and avoid the same pitfalls seen in the UK or US.”
For now, then, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The quality is rising, the audience is growing, and most importantly, the industry in these countries is still enjoying its moment. Whether they learn from the mistakes of earlier markets or follow them blindly up the same curve remains to be seen.
Coffee Intelligence
Want to read more articles like this? Sign up for our newsletter here.
