- Americans consumed 225,000 tonnes of pistachios in 2024 – more than any other country
- Viral hits like “Dubai Chocolate” drove $22m in sales in just three months
- This has fuelled shortages and strained supply chains from Turkey to California
PISTACHIOS, once a niche nut – at least on the global scene – are now a ubiquitous component of everything from lattes and chocolate bars to ice creams and cocktails.
Fuelled by TikTok-worthy phenomena like the viral “Dubai Chocolate” trend – that kicked off with this video that has reached 7.2 million likes to date – the global pistachio market is booming, at least for now.
Dubai Chocolate is a chocolate bar with a pistachio and kataifi dough filling that kicked off with Fix It’s Can’t Get Knafeh Of It chocolate bar. This led to sales of $22 million in just the first three months of 2025 and helped push Dubai Duty Free’s revenue to a record, according to the company.
This appetite stretches beyond snacks – pistachio-flavoured coffee drinks and spreads are now fixtures nationwide.
In 2024, Americans consumed 225,000 tonnes of pistachios – more than any other country, and in just under a year, US pistachio prices reportedly jumped from $7.65 to over $10.30 per pound. In the UK, Marks & Spencer debuted an “extra thick” pistachio and milk chocolate egg filled with pistachio truffle – an unconventional flavour for a traditional product.
“Last year, it was clear there would be a huge harvest mainly in Turkey but also in Iran, so every major player in the market knew in advance that pistachio would become a hot trend,” says Barbaros Pazarci, Co-Founder of Eufrate Commerce S.R.L. “That was also our entry point into the market.”
“We anticipated many new products featuring pistachio, and Dubai chocolate wasn’t a coincidence, it was a media-friendly hook for the F&B industry to ride the growing pistachio wave. If it hadn’t been that, it would have been something else. It might seem strange for a familiar dry nut to suddenly boom, but it wasn’t sudden, this was years in the making – with culinary trends starting in Italian desserts and Mediterranean cuisine spreading across Europe, and pistachio already deeply rooted in Turkey and the region.”
“We’re taking what nature gives us and trying to benefit as much as possible, which is why there is a growing number of pistachio plantations across Europe, the Middle East, and the Americas. There’s a reason it’s called ‘gold’ in agriculture.”
The pistachio is attractive to consumers because it is an expensive nut, with connotations of wealth, and a green colour that associates it with a healthy lifestyle.
Emma Brockes wittily touches on the latter for the Guardian, saying that “there is a health rationale undergirding the pistachio stampede that is completely legitimate if you enjoy plain, unsalted pistachios and less relevant if you eat one submerged in three inches of lard and encased in a chocolate straitjacket.” Like matcha, oat milk, and even coffee, if you submerge them in sugar and additives, any original health claims will quickly become irrelevant.
The Dubai Chocolate Latte is a trend also making its way into homes with DIY coffee recipes, and into major coffee shop chains as well. Coffee Island has a version, and Starbucks – who has been playing around with pistachio flavours for a while now – has been pushing its pistachio velvet latte and nailed two trends at once with its quite extravagant Dubai Chocolate Matcha Latte. The Wall Street Journal even tentatively coined Dubai Chocolate as “the next pumpkin spice.”
But beneath the green sheen, there’s a less visible cost. We’re seeing headlines like “TikTok trend for ‘Dubai chocolate’ causes international shortage of pistachios” in major news outlets, hinting at the sudden spike in demand creating supply chain disruptions.
Environmental concerns are valid, though less so than for the almond sector, for example. Over the past two decades, global demand for almonds has increased by over 150 %, triggering sustainability concerns because of almonds’ high water and pesticide use.
Most concerning is that overall, pistachio growth in demand has outpaced production capacity, especially when seasonal harvest variation or geopolitical disruptions strike.
The supply chain and economic toll
Pistachio trees sacrifice less water than some nuts, yet their rapid popularity creates its own costs.
These include soil salinity from irrigation, pest outbreaks like blight, and vulnerability to climate shocks – issues especially acute in the US’ region of California, and Iran and Turkey, the world’s top three high-volume producers. As growers expand acreage to meet demand, pressure on fragile desert ecosystems intensifies.
“Global production, especially in the US, Turkey, and Iran is expanding, but climate constraints, water usage, and pest risks limit rapid scaling,” says Barbaros. “Pistachios are a long-term crop, requiring years to mature, so supply can’t adjust quickly to spikes in demand. Current practices may meet short-term needs, but without sustainable irrigation, improved storage, and better disease control, volatility will persist.”
Pistachio cultivation demands significant water, though it fares better than almonds. But with California accounting for nearly two-thirds of global pistachio output and exporting heavily – the crop generated nearly $3 billion in the state last year, with exports headed mainly to China – the strain on supply chains is mounting.
Similar to the coffee supply chain, disruptions and pressures create volatility and uncertainty. In fact, the coffee and pistachio sectors share some commonalities.
“Both the coffee and pistachio sectors rely heavily on origin differentiation, with countries like Turkey, Iran, and the US playing roles similar to Ethiopia, Colombia, or Brazil in coffee,” says Barbaros. “Turkish, Greek, and Syrian varieties are widely considered higher grade compared to Californian and Iranian types, much like specialty coffee origins command premium prices over commodity beans.”
“Quality grading – by kernel size, colour, and harvest timing is as crucial for pistachios as green grading is for coffee, directly influencing price tiers. Origin stories and terroir-based branding shape consumer perception, allowing premium positioning. Like coffee, disruptions in origin supply or logistics can create significant volatility.”
The food system’s infrastructure is also feeling the pinch. Trend-driven commodities like Dubai chocolate and pistachio cream place massive pressure on manufacturing and logistics. In the United Arab Emirates, where Dubai chocolate is produced, imports of pistachios from Iran increased 40% between September 2024 and March 2025. Turkish suppliers also reported struggling to meet capacity.
Chocolate bars stuffed with pistachio cream often stoop to shortcuts – blending syrups or leaning on industrial pistachio purity, driving both supply volatility and rising prices. For coffee companies, introducing pistachio-infused lattes or cold brews means juggling shelf space, ingredient costs, and the environmental weight of shipping nuts across continents.
Trend capitalism and sustainability
The rapid embrace of pistachio – as a flavour, lifestyle symbol, and marketing hook – is emblematic of a broader trend cycle in consumer capitalism.
Viral flavour profiles, TikTok-driven demand, and a willingness to pay premium prices can turn culinary curiosity into a dietary staple overnight. But with it comes unsustainable supply pressure.
In this video, online consumerism YouTuber Levi Hildebrand posits that Dubai chocolate became a hit thanks to a perfect storm of premium price tag, virality because of its asmr crunchy sound, and artisan exclusivity and scarcity – to begin with at least. He predicts that over the next few months, the product will lose its novel appeal as the market becomes flooded with usually lower quality and less socially relevant variations that will eventually cheapen the category. “We can already see that this trend is dying in real time as the wheels of capitalism slowly eat this phenomenon alive,” he says.
When it comes to pistachios themselves, Barbaros believes they have better staying power potential.
“The boom has structural drivers: premium positioning, diverse applications, and strong origin branding, suggesting it’s more than a passing fad,” says Barbaros.
“However, rapid price increases, like those seen post-harvest in 2024–2025, risk alienating mainstream consumers if alternatives emerge. The most likely outcome is a stabilisation at higher baseline demand, with periodic spikes tied to global events, tariffs, or harvest shortfalls. It’s not going away, but growth rates may normalise once supply catches.”
People are drawn to Dubai chocolate as a symbol of wealth and excess that Dubai is known for, and for its current high social currency. Like matcha, acai, boba tea, and Labubu dolls, these are treats consumed by a group that many, especially young consumers, feel the need to belong to.
The ridiculous culmination of this takes the form of the memeable Dubai chocolate Labubu matcha latte that shows how capitalism thrives on turning fleeting cultural moments into premium commodities. By fusing multiple trend-heavy ingredients – pistachio for luxury, matcha for wellness, chocolate for indulgence, and Labubu for collectability – and wrapping them in limited-edition hype, brands create products that are as much about social signalling as flavour.
This has become a new chapter for popular culture, the epitome of capitalist consumerism exploiting scarcity and justifying exorbitant prices – another meme circulating online that draws a link between Labubu dolls and Panama Geisha’s new record price.
These trends reveal how food culture is increasingly engineered to generate both cultural cachet and high margins.
To avoid a collapse – or backlash – pistachio’s green sheen must match real sustainability. Equally important is tempering trend-fuelled marketing with honesty; with labelling, local sourcing where possible, and restrained hype.
In the end, pistachio’s rise is a test case in modern capitalism’s hunger for novelty and the industry’s tendency to chase trends without weighing ecological and cultural cost.
Coffee Intelligence
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