- Once-profitable “mid-80s” lots that balanced quality and scale have become unviable in today’s market
- With the C price holding above $2/lb, many mid-tier coffees now cost as much as experimental microlots did in the past
- This is eroding margins and collapsing demand, leaving specialty importers and roasters squeezed
IN coffee shops around the world, we’re still seeing exciting, experimental microlots for those “in the know,” and blends of lower grade Brazilian coffees for milky espresso-based drinks.
But increasingly missing from the menu is the backbone of the third wave – what the specialty coffee business has come to know as the “middle coffees.”
Once hailed as the dependable workhorse of quality-focused importers, these 85–86 point coffees – often washed, single-origin lots from Colombia or Ethiopia. For example – struck a commercial and sensory balance. They were good enough to stand alone on a filter menu, consistent enough for espresso, and affordable enough to buy by the container. Not quite outstanding, not quite cheap – just reliably excellent.
In a recent article for SCA’s Green Coffee Hub, Algrano said of the 85-point coffee: “Coffee qualities are generally divided into 80-84 points and 86+. This leaves the 85-point coffee, which is already an amazing quality, lost in the middle.”
“85 and 86 point coffees were the mainstay of many specialty roasters,” says Vicente Mejia, Founder and CEO of Clearpath Coffee. “We once sold them as versatile building blocks for house blends, espresso blends, and single origins – coffees roasters could experiment with them to create different profiles for their shops, adaptable to countless uses. These coffees stood out from grocery-store fare – approachable, affordable, and clearly better.”
Today, that category has all but vanished.
“When Covid hit, roaster-retailers lost 50–80% of their business almost overnight for several months due to quarantine,” says Kosta Kallivrousis, Sales Representative UK and Europe at Osito Coffee. “Then a frost hit Brazil and prices spiked from a low of 96 cents in May 2020 to over $2.00 by October. Prices have not dipped below $1.40 since. Roasters were priced out of this quality.”
The cause is indeed largely economic. The C price, the global benchmark for green Arabica coffee, has remained high since the 2021 frost in Brazil and subsequent supply shocks. During 1992-2019, the average price of coffee was $3.74/kg($1.70/lb) (measured in 2019 dollars), eroding the pricing floor that once allowed those middle-tier coffees to exist.
“Now, they’re harder to find,” says Vicente. “When the C market hovered at $1.50–$2/lb, roasters could pay a $1.20–$1.50 premium, rewarding producers and giving exporters reason to invest in farms and producer groups that could deliver consistent quality. But when the C market hit $3–$4/lb, that margin vanished. Producers, already earning well from commodity prices, saw little incentive to put in the extra work for higher quality when there was no added reward.”
Specialty lots that would have fetched $2.95–$3.50/lb just five years ago now cost nearly as much as the most sought-after microlots, without the outstanding quality that roasters now demand. Importers who used to use the 86-point benchmark as a selling point now find themselves in an impasse.
Roasters, recalibrated
For years until COVID hit in 2020, middle-tier coffees powered the portfolios of boutique importers, offering them scale without compromising on quality.
In 2021, The Sustainable Coffee Transaction Guide made a report that found a 20% decline in “fancy” coffee (any coffees scoring 84 points or above) and a 17% increase in “regular” coffees (scoring 80–83 points).
“During Covid, selling coffee became more about survival. I saw many coffee roasters downgrade from their pillar 85-point coffees to lower-scoring coffees to maintain their margins and their businesses. The market of 85–86 point coffees has never been the same since – I see the same thing happening now,” says Kosta.
“There’s always been a fancy segment of roasters, and a regular segment of roasters. Today, the hybrid roaster segment buying both qualities is what’s shrunk overall. I think buyers care, but when push comes to shove, they need to save shrinking margins.”
These middle lots allowed specialty roasters to differentiate without alienating price-conscious customers. But as prices surge and consumer demand stagnates – especially in Europe, where inflation has cooled discretionary spending, but also in the US, according to Rabobank – the unit economics have stopped making sense.
Roasters have adapted. Many have leaned into two extremes: 80-point, high-volume blends for milk-based drinks, or ultra-niche, fermentation-forward coffees for brand prestige. The former feeds the demand for oat cappuccinos that taste mostly of oat and steamed milk; the latter, often sold in 100 gram packets, justify eye-watering prices to a tiny cohort of aficionados.
Now, at a time when even big coffee finds itself at a crossroads because of political turmoil, inflation and uncertainty, it looks like the commercial sweet spot – the 85–86-pointer that could move 100 bags to multiple containers a year – may no longer be commercially viable.
Roasters realise they don’t need to pay a premium for nuance that disappears under steamed milk. The logic seems to be that if most people can’t taste the difference between an 84 and an 86 in a flat white, why pay for it?
With that logic, many importers have scaled back operations on middle coffees, unable to make margin on coffees they once considered core.
“We have focused on coffees with a higher level of differentiation and also higher prices,” says Vicente. “We do regional coffees on a larger volume as a service to our clients, but it is not our main focus or what we would like to grow on. Clients notice, but they are also in a tight situation with rising prices, and they need to find other kinds of coffees for their business.”
What’s comes next
The disappearance of middle-tier coffees is not just a commercial inconvenience – it represents a structural shift in global trade.
Many coffee roasters have long relied on this middle category to either elevate lower-quality blends, or to allow them to offer single-origin lots at a more affordable price mark. Its attractiveness was its unique versatility. Now, with demand for these lots waning, where does this leave coffee producers?
“The pivot shrinking market away from 85–86-point lots came very quickly,” says Kosta. “It really left two major markets for green sellers, either the regular market dominated by large multinationals offering more competitive deals, or the limited release market – 87+ coffees – selling small quantities but at high margins based on close connections with buyers. It’s a small circle.”
“The risk is possibly highest for farmers looking to break into the specialty market with a shrinking group in the middle, more efficient larger sellers able to take smaller margins, and a close knit group of hyper specialty buyers where relationship is extremely important.”
“For roasters needing more price-conscious coffees, this moment will be a test to see what’s most important to specialty consumers, is it the cup quality, or the brand? My bet is on the latter. “
More power in the hands of scale-focused buyers – often larger multinationals or traders that prize consistency and logistics over provenance – risks hollowing out the value chain. Middle-tier demand is waning because middle lots are either too small and expensive for the commodity giants who could potentially afford them, and too “basic” and expensive for the elite roasters looking for best value for money.
Is there a way back?
“If the C market drops back to $1.50–$2/lb and this category doesn’t return, farmers will have to either double down on efficiency to survive on razor-thin margins, or pivot to highly differentiated, high-priced coffees,” says Vicente. “But that market is smaller and harder to build than one for solid 85–86-point coffee.”
“The real risk is losing a straightforward path to earning a premium for better quality coffee made from traditional varieties and processes – something most farmers can already produce with what’s on their farms, without major infrastructure upgrades or risky new processing methods.”
If market prices fall, cost structures may realign. But even then, the question remains whether the roasters – and consumers – will feel the need to upgrade quality on their single origin offerings and blends.
Tariffs, logistics costs, and shifting consumer and industry values all compound the uncertainty. Until then, the middle will remain missing – squeezed out by economic logic, consumer ambivalence, and a market that is too uncertain to predict what’s next.
Coffee Intelligence
Want to read more articles like this? Sign up for our newsletter here.
