- Non-coffee products like matcha are stealing the spotlight at coffee shops and events
- 75% of Gen Z coffee drinkers now prefer flavoured or customised drinks over black filter coffee
- As consumer focus shifts, third-wave professionals & businesses face a stark choice: evolve or be left behind
AT coffee trade shows this year – the London Coffee Festival or World of Coffee, for example – non-coffee products like oat milk, matcha, sunflower‑butter lattes, and even beer are increasingly stealing the show.
Once a showcase for precise roast profiles and sparkling acidity, these gatherings now resemble more of a café-show, highlighting plant-based beverages and wellness-inspired concoctions at the expense of traditional coffee.
This pivot reflects deeper transformation in consumer preferences. Third‑wave aficionados – rooted in single‑origin roasts, microlot pride, and the “stories of origin” – seem to be losing footing.
Many veteran specialty roasters are introducing matcha to attract or retain a clientele increasingly uninterested in coffee cup scores. Others, like Dritan Alsela, who has built a social media following on his love of coffee, reject this green pivot. Matcha, like infused coffees over the last few years, is dividing crowds.
“I worked at Stumptown in 2007, and their cafés made vanilla syrup and had Chai Tea Lattes, and Ritual Coffee had them as well when I was there at all locations but Napa,” says Josh Longsdorf, Owner of Anthology Coffee.
“In the same way, matcha is not a health drink. All specialty cafés make matcha with sugar. People want sugar. And the market shift is more toward sugar in my opinion. More and more cafés are moving toward making more monthly drinks and other trend-based models.”
When it comes to reaching more mainstream consumers, it doesn’t seem to be so much about the coffee anymore.
Data confirms the shift. The National Coffee Association’s (NCA) Spring 2025 National Coffee Data Trends (NCDT) report shows that coffee remains the most widely consumed beverage in the US, with 66% of adults drinking it daily. But among Gen Z — a rising force in consumer markets — tea is starting to outpace coffee.
Reportedly armed with $360 billion in disposable income – Gen Z prioritises endless customisation and aesthetic appeal over terroir or precise brewing. A consumer-facing report noted 75% of young coffee drinkers now choose drinks with syrups like lavender or charcoal foam over black pourover. Vanilla matcha tea is one of the top-selling products at Chamberlain Coffee, a brand created by YouTuber Emma Chamberlain, whose target demographic skews heavily toward Gen Z.
Is there still space left for nuanced single-origin roasts when new generations of consumers would rather Instagram a charcoal latte garnished with edible petals? Some remain hopeful and steadfast in their faith in the third wave’s staying power.
“I believe third-wave coffee will always remain an integral part of coffee culture,” says Anupama Agarwal, Founder of Eat.Sleep.Review.Repeat. “While trends like matcha and wellness drinks come and go, the third wave represents the core values of quality and craft that will continue to anchor the industry.”
Others feel that third wave and specialty will continue to find a home, to a limited degree.
“I believe that there is always room for connoisseurship in the realms of food and art, and that this approach can continue to a limited degree,” says Ric Rhinehart, Senior Consultant for the coffee and tea sectors, and former Executive Director of the Specialty Coffee Association. “The audience is moving away and will grow smaller both in real terms and as a share of the coffee market, particularly in developed markets.”
“Third-wave coffee was an attempt to connect the concepts of connoisseurship from the consumer back to the producer. Traditionally, the perspective of the coffee buyer, whether roaster or trader, was the only one from which the totality of the product quality could be appreciated. The third wave movement began to include the roaster, the barista, and the consumer, and ultimately the farmer and miller as fully engaged participants.
This enlargement of the quality perspective was evidenced by the emergence of the Roasters Guild, barista competitions, the Cup of Excellence, farms like Hacienda Esmeralda, and processing advances from wet process micro mills to semi-washed coffees, to anaerobic processing. All of this was in pursuit of a better coffee experience, largely as defined by the coffee business and then sold to consumers.”
The state of specialty
Faced with waning interest in pure expression of coffee, many OG third-wave players are splitting into two distinct paths or perishing.
Most exporters and importers steeped in microlot sourcing are finding it increasingly hard to stay relevant – even in smaller markets selling to die-hards. Roasters and cafés that haven’t pivoted to trendy offshoots remain niche but stable, for now.
“In the last presentation I gave to a coffee audience, I said that in all commercial activities, you must choose between being big or being good,” says Ric. “I believe this to be mostly true.”
“The original premise of the small businesses that launched the third wave was to be small, nimble, committed to quality, and most importantly, not for everyone. This is, of course, at odds with the basic concepts of capitalism as practiced today, and from the moment the commercial coffee industry began to believe that specialty was here to stay, the work of degrading quality in favour of growth was destined to overtake the quality aspirations of the early adopters.
The Third-Wave practitioners who will survive as committed quality leaders and innovators will also have to be committed to slower growth, smaller audiences, and a willingness to lead the consumer rather than follow them.”
Those that scaled rapidly – often backed by investors or private equity – have diluted third-wave principles to chase mass appeal. Many of these brands now lean heavily on unusual concepts and novelty menus to drive foot traffic and justify capital injections. The result? A fractured identity and uncertain retention.
“Private equity is buying up everything, which shifts things” says Josh. “It started with the Intelligentsia and Stumptown era, and now it’s Black & White and Fairwave Collective. To survive alongside these growing giants, smaller players are being forced to scale and capture more market share.”
For some purists, scaling means losing essence. Once-defining traits – transparent sourcing, roast profile, brew precision – have been sacrificed for social media buzz. Social currency in coffee is evolving, and trends are doing what they do best – coming and going.
The sector now stands divided: niche specialists preserving craft in boutique markets, and broader players chasing generational stimuli through novelty and aesthetics.
Pret A Manger has introduced two new iced lattes: Ube Brûlée and Spirulina Macaron, joining the fan-favourite Iced Matcha Latte. To celebrate the launch, Pret has teamed up with cult East London salon Shoreditch Nails to create exclusive nail art inspired by each iced latte. Though not a good example of a third wave brand, it does demonstrate a marketing pivot aligned with changing consumer demands.
Black Sheep Coffee, known for championing specialty robusta in an industry that prizes arabica, recently saw its lemonade and matcha-based beverage sales shoot up 315%. This signals a decisive consumer pivot: Away from espresso and toward colourful, non-coffee drinks.
For Josh, product diversification and business model adaptation do not necessarily mean abandoning a brand’s core operations or demographic – in fact, they could strengthen them.
“These shifts can actually benefit the third wave segment,” he says. “When we added Base, our more accessible line, sales of our original third wave-style bags also increased. The two complemented each other – customers are buying both, not just trading down, and choosing us over grocery store options.”
“Similarly, adding matcha brought in new customers; matcha drinkers are introducing friends who then explore our other offerings, like drip coffee. So while consolidation pushes pressure on smaller brands, expanding smartly can also grow the pie.”
Future pathways: reinvention or reintegration?
Where does this leave the workforce and the industry at large? For many specialty-trained baristas and roasters, their hard-earned expertise risks obsolescence in a trend‑driven world.
As many in the specialty coffee sector navigate some tough times, or potentially face an uncertain future, the sector is experiencing a slow but visible specialty coffee brain drain.
Career trajectories once clear – coffee buyer, lead roaster, café manager – are increasingly uncertain. Jobs are shifting. Many professionals are pivoting into roles in consumer‑packaged goods – matcha startup engineer, cold‑brew brand developer. Indeed, a quick LinkedIn search for “coffee roaster” and “product innovation” now surfaces at least as many health-drink startups as cafés. Blank Street Coffee’s Co-Founder LinkedIn cover image – featuring a matcha latte – tells its own story.
The trend raises a critical question: what unique value can specialty coffee people offer within brands that prioritise matcha, spirulina, and Ube lattes?
“Trained baristas have a strong advantage, they’re best equipped to lead innovation and shape the future of beverage trends,” says Anupama. “They have the expertise to stay at the forefront and even create the next wave of what’s popular.”
Those trained in flavour profiling, precision roasting, and origin storytelling bring high-end sensory development skills – exactly what product-driven beverages need to stand out. Taste nuance, raw material traceability, and consumer education are in demand beyond simple caffeine.
Are large multinational brands – better positioned than niche specialty coffee companies to offer competitive compensation – increasingly eager to hire these highly skilled professionals, tapping their expertise to elevate premium product lines and services? Brands like Nestlé and Lavazza are betting on quality. Nespresso reportedly recently invested USD 20 million to revive specialty coffee in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by 2026, and Lavazza has launched its 1895 Coffee Designers Collection. It stands to reason that they would need qualified experts to support these operations.
“I suspect that good paying, meaningful work in specialty coffee will be increasingly challenging to find,” says Ric. “The very best will create their own possibilities, but the bulk will have to see if they can transfer their skills to different products, different audiences, or different arenas altogether.”
Specialty coffee has entered a new frontier. Instead of pure coffee, it’s injecting rigour into newer, trend‑led beverages. The career paths remain rich but demand agility, openness to adjacent categories, and a commitment to listen to consumers on what resonates with them, and what doesn’t.
Coffee Intelligence
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