- China has eliminated import duties on coffee from 53 African countries
- China’s coffee consumption has surged 21% annually since 2010, outpacing global growth
- In contrast, the EU is tightening trade rules, positioning China as a frictionless buyer
IN June, at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Ministerial Meeting held in Changsha, China quietly redrew the coffee trade map.
In a major policy shift, Beijing announced the removal of all import duties on coffee and other products from 53 African countries – a dramatic expansion of existing preferential agreements. The decision expands the duty‑free access previously enjoyed by Africa’s 33 least-developed countries to 20 more, including the continent’s four largest economies of Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria.
While framed as part of a broader South-South cooperation strategy, the decision sends a clear signal: China is now actively positioning itself as a more attractive and less burdensome destination for African agricultural exports.
From January 2024 – when the Overall Construction Plan for the Pioneering Zone for In-depth China-Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation was approved by the State Council – to mid-2025, Hunan province’s trade with Africa reached CNY 83.8 billion, with all African nations now within its commercial network. In the first half of 2025 alone, trade hit nearly CNY 28.99 billion (around $4 billion) – up 7.6% year-on-year. This cements the province’s lead in Africa-bound trade among China’s central and western regions. Agricultural imports hit CNY 160 million, while aquatic imports surged by 127%. Notably, imports of sesame, coffee, and dried chili grew by 499.4%, 197.8%, and 62.2%, respectively.
Until now, Africa has relied heavily on Europe, Africa itself, and, to a lesser degree, the United States for its green coffee exports. Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, and Kenya – some of the continent’s most prominent producers – have long sent the bulk of their beans to EU buyers or to other African countries. More recently though, Ethiopia has predominantly directed its green coffee exports towards Asia (54.5%), followed by Europe (29.5%).
But trade has become more complicated. The EU’s new deforestation regulation, set to take effect at the end of this year, places costly compliance burdens on smallholder-dominated supply chains.
China’s move changes the incentive structure. As it eliminates import duties, it not only boosts margins for African exporters but makes itself a more frictionless buyer in a sector where paperwork, regulation, and certification have become major barriers to entry. For China, it’s a relatively inexpensive way to deepen its presence in Africa, court coffee’s growing middle classes, and edge into a market long dominated by the West.
“As a grouping of smallholder coffee producers focused on specialty coffee production, our approach to markets has always been to establish direct, and as much as possible, collaborative relationships with end market partners – roasters,” says Matti Foncha, President of the African Coffee Trading Group.
“Our production cost being higher than those of bigger farms, selling directly to partners in the EU, UK and US – markets with no import tariffs on African coffee [sic] – has enabled us to set fair and competitive market prices that compensate our farmers better than if they had sold their coffee to local traders and exporters. China’s removal of tariffs on coffee produced in Africa will make its markets just as interesting for us as the other markets.”
In Europe, import tariff structures on sub-Saharan African countries are preferential but vary from country to country, and in the US, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) – a trade programme that provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 1,800 products – is due to expire on 30 September, 2025. In that context, China’s competitive advantage in terms of import tariffs remains unclear.
What is certain is that China’s new zero-import tariff policy for Africa is more meaningful to African coffee producers and exporters seeking less regulated markets than to those prepared for mandatory environmental and human rights supply chain due diligence.
A coffee axis reshaped by geopolitics
While the removal of tariffs is economic on paper, it’s geopolitical in practice. China has been investing in Africa for decades, largely in infrastructure, energy, and mining. But in recent years, soft power and trade diplomacy have gained importance. Agriculture – and coffee in particular – has become a key vector.
Chinese importers have notably become more active in East Africa’s coffee auctions. Now, with the full elimination of tariffs, China is signalling it’s ready to absorb more volume.
According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), since 2010, China’s coffee consumption has surged at an average annual growth rate of 21% – significantly outpacing the global average of 1.8%. China’s coffee consumption remains relatively modest – at just over 2.9 million 60-kg bags – similar to South Korea and Canada, but far behind its potential. With per capita consumption at only 0.15 kg compared to the global average of 1.36 kg, the growth opportunity is immense.
The Statistical Coordinator of the Statistics Section of the ICO predicts that if China were to match global consumption rates, demand could surge to 31.7 million bags, making it the world’s largest coffee market.
In cities like Shanghai, coffee culture has become aspirational, even fashionable, especially among younger consumers.
“I believe the growing consumption of coffee, particularly by a younger, more globally connected generation, is driving a strong demand for coffee,” says Matti. “The elimination of tariffs and other trade incentives would make China an attractive end market for African exporters.”
Meanwhile, in Europe, the deforestation regulation (EUDR) has been widely criticised for being misaligned with realities on the ground in producing countries, particularly in Africa. While aimed at ensuring environmental accountability, it could penalise exporters who lack the resources to comply – effectively shutting them out of the EU market.
This creates a strategic opportunity for China. By simplifying access for African exporters, it presents itself as a more consistent and less prescriptive trading partner. The move also plays well with China’s broader Belt and Road ambitions, tying African agricultural exports to its domestic consumption growth – and by extension, into its orbit of soft influence.
What this means for producers and global trade flows
The implications of China’s tariff removal will take time to materialise fully, but the early signs suggest a shift in orientation for African producers.
For decades, many coffee farmers and cooperatives in Africa have tailored their operations to meet the exacting standards of EU buyers, often adapting their processes, documentation, and logistics to comply with evolving rules. Now, with the promise of a lower-friction market in China, exporters may begin rebalancing their focus.
“Regulations like the EUDR that are requirements for access to Western markets could turn African producers and exporters away from them and towards less regulated markets, especially when demand is strong in them,” says Matti.
“Producer organisations like ours that share many of the values and objectives of regulations are unlikely to abandon those regulated markets if the costs of compliance with the regulations are adequately covered.”
In the short term, producers in Ethiopia and Uganda – two of Africa’s biggest exporters – are well-positioned to benefit. Both already have established trade channels into Asia, and the ability to ship duty-free gives them a margin edge. Other lower scale origins, known for their high-quality arabica, could also pivot toward China if demand continues to rise.
But this shift may also reshape global pricing and trade dynamics. If a significant volume of African coffee begins flowing east rather than west, it could tighten supply in traditional markets – potentially pushing up prices in Europe and the US, or increasing reliance on other producers.
It may also reduce Africa’s exposure to what some perceive as burdensome EU regulations, allowing some producers to focus on quality and value-added production for more flexible markets. China’s new zero-tariff policy on African coffee could also reshape trade flows across the continent, posing a competitive threat to intra-African trade in both green and value-added coffee.
Green coffee exports from major African producers show varied regional dependencies, according to the Inter-African Coffee Organization. Cameroon and Côte d’Ivoire rely heavily on Algeria and Europe, with Côte d’Ivoire sending nearly 80% of its green coffee to Algeria alone. Ethiopia’s exports lean toward Asia, led by Saudi Arabia, while Rwanda’s are more dispersed, with Switzerland and the US as top buyers. Uganda remains strongly tied to Europe, which takes over 65% of its green coffee. These patterns underscore how African exporters depend on distinct regional markets, shaped by historical, economic, and logistical ties.
While China’s zero-tariff policy doesn’t eliminate intra-African coffee trade, it creates strong incentives for exporters to prioritise the Chinese market – particularly those currently reliant on regional buyers. For countries like Côte d’Ivoire, whose soluble coffee largely serves West Africa, or Ethiopia, which already sends over half its green coffee to Asia, China’s duty-free access and rising demand may prove too attractive to ignore.
Over time, this could divert volumes away from neighbouring markets in favour of higher-margin opportunities in China. However, regional trade – especially in processed products – likely stands to remain relevant due to geographic proximity, lower logistics costs, and local preferences.
More broadly, China’s move could catalyse further south-south trade partnerships. If African countries find success exporting to China, they may begin favouring markets where trade rules are fewer, logistics investments are backed by infrastructure deals, and political alignments are more predictable. This marks a realignment not just of trade flows, but of influence.
The power dynamics of coffee trade are shifting. China is betting that removing friction is the best way to win influence and volume. In contrast, the West is adding layers of scrutiny, regulation, and politicised tariffs. While intra-African coffee trade could see some diversion as a result, the impact may be cushioned by proximity and regional preferences.
Whether or not China becomes the next major coffee superpower remains to be seen. But with this latest move, it has clearly positioned itself as a future hub.
Coffee Intelligence
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