- Brazil is doubling down on China as trade tensions with the U.S. mount
- In the 2023-24 crop year, coffee exports from Brazil to China increased by 186.1% year-on-year
- Luckin is promoting Brazilian coffee as more than trade – it’s a cultural alliance
AS latest political moves from the U.S. administration trigger fresh trade tensions, Brazil is quietly doubling down on its largest trading partner: China.
In early May, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva travelled to Beijing to ink a series of bilateral agreements, seeking to shield Brazil’s economy from geopolitical headwinds while deepening ties with the world’s second-largest economy.
The timing is no accident. The U.S. rhetoric around “reciprocal tariffs” – particularly targeting Chinese imports – has unnerved global markets. Brazil, ever the pragmatic exporter, is moving to ensure that the fallout does not limit its own ambitions.
“Brazil’s pivot to China goes far beyond a reaction to U.S. trade unpredictability,” says RJ. Liow, Managing Director of CapFiX. “It’s a calculated move to diversify partnerships, secure long-term infrastructure investment, and position itself as a key player in the new multipolar trade order.”
At the centre of Lula’s visit is a drive to expand Chinese investment in Brazilian infrastructure and clean energy, but agriculture remains the golden thread. Brazil’s agribusiness giants are eyeing deeper access to China’s vast consumer market.
Over 150 delegates from Brazil’s agriculture sector will attend China’s top food fair in Shanghai, hoping to translate diplomatic goodwill into hard trade flows. Among them are major coffee producers, who see China not just as a new growth market but as a buffer against global volatility.
New trade agreements are expected to focus on streamlining sanitary protocols, reducing logistical bottlenecks, and securing long-term commodity contracts.
The deals signal a broader effort to reposition Brazil not just as a supplier of raw materials, but as a strategic agri-industrial partner to Beijing. Lula, in his trademark blend of populism and pragmatism, is seeking to use foreign policy as a lever for domestic economic development – at a time when other Latin American economies remain largely reactive to external shocks.
Meanwhile, playing into the same dynamic, a year ago Luckin Coffee entered a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil) – with a proposal to purchase 120,000t of Brazilian coffee up to 2026 in a transaction valued at $500m. Now, Luckin just announced that it is partnering with multiple Brazilian organisations to launch its “Brazil Coffee Culture Festival 2.0” as a key initiative to strengthen China-Brazil economic and cultural ties – a follow up to its first edition in 2024 launched to celebrate “50 years of China-Brazil relations.”
This move signals that this goes beyond an economic partnership – it is a cultural pivot and a message to the world.
A partnership decades in the making
Though current events may be accelerating the pace of cooperation, Brazil and China’s economic courtship is hardly new.
China became Brazil’s largest trading partner in 2009, surpassing the United States. Over the past sixteen years, bilateral trade has ballooned from $42 billion to over $188 billion in 2024, with China importing vast quantities of Brazilian soy, iron, meat – and increasingly, coffee.
This growing appetite was formalised in 2024 with a memorandum of understanding (MoU) focused specifically on coffee trade. The MoU outlined ambitions to boost Chinese imports of Brazilian beans, enhance technical cooperation, and develop joint research into climate-resilient coffee cultivation. It also called for greater exchange in processing and retail models, signalling China’s interest in developing not just its taste for coffee, but its domestic supply chain.
For China, deepening ties with Brazil serves several strategic goals. These include supporting Beijing’s long-standing effort to diversify its food security base, reducing reliance on U.S. and Australian suppliers. China’s strategic interest in diversifying its food security by working with Brazil is a logical move given Brazil’s status as the world’s largest coffee producer. Securing a strategic alliance with the world’s largest coffee producer is a huge win for China, in a sector that is currently at its most fragile due to supply chain disruptions, climate shocks, and volatile prices.
For Brazil, the benefits are equally tangible: China offers a vast and increasingly sophisticated consumer base, patient capital for development finance, and fewer political strings than Western counterparts.
The political chemistry helps too. Lula, now in his third term, shares a worldview with Xi Jinping that favours multipolarity and South-South cooperation. Both leaders have framed trade not simply as economic exchange, but as part of a broader shift away from US-dominated global governance.
Their alignment reflects an unwavering confidence in building parallel systems – economic, diplomatic, and ideological.
“The alignment between Lula and Xi is not just ideological – it’s producing commercial and financial outcomes,” says RJ.
“Brazil and China are now exploring long-term cooperation in sectors beyond agriculture, including renewable energy, 5G infrastructure, fintech, and even digital currency frameworks via BRICS. Huawei’s continued rollout in Brazil, despite U.S. objections, and the strategic financing from China Development Bank to Brazil’s BNDES are key signals of this alignment turning into capital flows.”
Building a new coffee trade alliance
If soybeans and iron defined the first wave of Brazil-China trade, coffee may come to symbolise the next.
Historically a tea-drinking nation, China’s coffee consumption has surged in recent years, driven by rising incomes, urban lifestyles, and emerging government support of its coffee sector. Imports of green coffee beans reached record highs in 2024. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council reported that in the 2023-24 crop year, coffee exports from Brazil to China increased by an impressive 186.1% year-on-year, totalling 1.64 million 60-kilogram bags — the fastest growth rate among all export destinations. Overall, Brazil’s coffee exports rose 32.7% to reach a new all-time high.
Brazilian producers are keen to capitalise on this momentum. The upcoming food fair in Shanghai is being treated not merely as a showcase but as a strategic inflection point.
A key example of this deepening partnership is Luckin Coffee’s recent move. The Chinese coffee chain, now one of the fastest-growing in the world in direct competition with Starbucks, has announced it will exclusively source its espresso blends from Brazil.
The partnership – announced in May 2025 – further solidifies Brazil’s status as the dominant supplier of premium coffee to the Chinese market. Luckin Coffee accounts for nearly 50% of China’s imported coffee beans and over 60% of China’s imports of Brazilian coffee beans.
This is more than a commercial win. It underscores Brazil’s ability to shape the narrative of quality and origin in China’s coffee awakening.
Brazilian producers are now aiming to secure not just volume, but influence – embedding their brand into China’s consumer culture. That includes new marketing campaigns in Mandarin, partnerships with local e-commerce platforms, and investments in digital traceability to meet China’s growing demand for transparency and sustainability.
Yet challenges remain. China’s food safety regulations are exacting, and its taste preferences can differ sharply from Western norms. Brazilian exporters must adapt flavour profiles and packaging formats accordingly.
As the EU and U.S. introduce stricter rules on deforestation and sustainability, China offers a compelling alternative: a high-growth, low-friction destination for Brazilian coffee. The relationship is not without risk – Beijing is known to favour strategic self-reliance – but for now, the momentum is on Brazil’s side.
If successful, Brazil’s bet on China may serve as a model for how agricultural powerhouses can hedge geopolitical risk and shape consumer preferences in the Global South.
Coffee, once a niche commodity in China, is becoming a bridge between two emerging powers – proving that in international trade, the right blend of timing, diplomacy, and cultural insight can be just as important as the product itself.
Coffee Intelligence
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