- Higher yield is often equated with higher income in coffee production – to a fault
- Brazil and Vietnam’s yields have risen by 40% and 18% respectively in the last decade
- Despite production scaling, profitability remains low for most coffee farmers, and financial conditions are making it worse
FOR decades, the dominant strategy to improve incomes in coffee-producing countries has been to increase yield per hectare.
Governments, development agencies, and the coffee industry at large have long viewed scaling coffee production as the primary solution to the chronic issue of low farmer incomes. Issues with coffee pricing mean that many producers struggle to maintain financially viable farms. This makes high crop productivity a priority, particularly for commercial coffees.
From USAID together with the Colombian Federation of Coffee Growers’ push in the mid-20th century to enhance productivity through modern agricultural practices, to initiatives in Vietnam aimed at increasing output through improved farming techniques and input use, the mantra has remained consistent: more coffee equals more income.
Policies from international bodies and national governments have historically emphasised boosting productivity as the key to development. The book Grounds for Agreement states that during that time, “green coffee was increasingly treated as an industrial output.” The logic was straightforward: if farmers can produce more coffee on the same amount of land, they should be able to sell more and therefore earn more.
“My family often tells me about how before coffee got infected by leaf rust and other diseases in 2005-2007, each tree could produce as much as 20-35 pounds of cherry,” says David Batres, fourth generation coffee grower and CQI Php Assistant Instructor in Guatemala.
“Suddenly, we needed chemical fertilisers to recover loss of yields and capital – that’s how it started.”
Average yields in Brazil have risen sharply over the last decade with figures from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization showing an increase of more than 40% to about 1.5 tonnes per hectare. Vietnam has also seen yields rise from already strong levels, climbing about 18% to around 2.5 tonnes. This is the product of substantial national investment in mechanisation, inputs, and R&D – a luxury inaccessible to many other origins.
Yet, despite the long-standing focus on scaling production, a living income for coffee farmers remains elusive. Many coffee producers continue to struggle with poverty, unable to cover their basic needs despite producing tonnes of coffee each year. Even with increased yields, they still face volatile prices, rising costs of inputs, and climate change impacts that threaten their livelihoods.
The relationship between productivity and profitability is one of the main relationships to look at with regard to the economic viability of coffee production.
The limits of scalability in coffee farming
Focusing on yield may generate wins in the medium term, but it the long term it can place strain on the land and surrounding ecosystem – which further exacerbates the vulnerability of coffee farmers.
“When dealing with nature and complex ecosystems, analysing them through the lens of a single metric, such as yield per hectare, is simplistic and often fails in the long term,” says Beto Bina, CEO & Founder of FARFARM.
The emphasis on scaling up coffee production is rooted in an industrial mindset, one that prioritises uniformity and replication. This approach, while effective in manufacturing, often falls short in agriculture. An article on scaling in agriculture by human ecologist Philip Loring posits that “scalability as a value derives from an industrial way of thinking: that the best solutions are those that can be replicated and implemented widely, and that uniformity breeds efficiency and productivity.”
While this may work in a factory, ecosystems are more complex and require diversity, flexibility, and change – traits that do not align with scalability.
Coffee farms are fragile ecosystems, each with unique characteristics that make them ill-suited to a one-size-fits-all approach. Aggressive scaling and increased use of inputs can lead to soil degradation, loss of biodiversity, and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases.
“The conflict arises from the perspective that we simplify nature and believe we can control it, whereas the best strategy should be to collaborate with it,” says Beto. “Complex ecosystems are not designed to function within large-scale monocultures. This has been proven countless times, but it often takes a generation to change culture and mentality.”
Moreover, scaling up production often requires significant upfront investment in new technologies, fertilisers, pesticides, and labour, which many smallholder farmers simply cannot afford.
This industrial approach also disregards the fact that ecosystem health is crucial for long-term productivity and sustainability in coffee farming. Uniform practices that emphasise yield over ecosystem health can degrade the very resources—soil, water, biodiversity—that coffee farming relies on.
In the face of climate change, coffee farms need to be adaptable and resilient, capable of withstanding unexpected shocks. A focus on scalability and uniformity undermines these traits, potentially making coffee farms less sustainable in the long term.
Now, international organisations and the private sector are investing in agroforestry, diversification, and regenerative practices to repair some of the damage. Even McCafe boasts coffee beans grown on “Rainforest Alliance certified coffee farms.”
“Coffee producers should focus on diversification (such as consortia or agroforestry) and soil health through organic inputs, compost, and soil cover, to enhance productivity and resilience in the long term,” says Beto.
Yield obsession and the short-term profit imperative
The current fixation on yield per hectare operates under the assumption that increased production will eventually lead to higher profits. However, this premise does not align with the realities of today’s coffee market.
Brands and investors are increasingly focused on immediate returns rather than long-term potential. In this context, access to finance and investment is no longer driven by growth projections but by current profitability. Coffee farmers are often expected to demonstrate profitability now, not in some distant future.
Increasing yield per hectare as a strategy also overlooks the complexities of the global coffee market, where prices are often dictated by factors beyond the control of farmers. Even when yields increase, prices can drop, negating any gains from higher production.
Additionally, as more farmers increase their output, the market can become oversupplied, leading to further price drops. This is known as the price/yield paradox, or the question of where the help versus harm tipping point lies for farmers – the point at which individual income gains for farmers are erased by global price. Not to mention the issue of dominant origins in coffee supply like Brazil and Vietnam, and the soaring prices that occur when they encounter issues.
Diversification, both within and outside coffee farming, is a strategy aimed to balance some of this out. By growing different crops alongside coffee, farmers can reduce their reliance on a single source of income and increase their resilience to market fluctuations and environmental shocks.
“One good approach I’ve seen lately is pruning programmes – part of the soil is rested for one year, and that portion can become productive again the next year,” says David. “This means more production, and less depleted soil. Another long term solution I’m exploring is processing my own coffee and focusing on the specialty market.”
But transitioning from high-yield practices and chemical inputs to natural methods takes time.
“Unfortunately, there are no shortcuts,” says Beto. “Transitioning to organic, agroecological, or regenerative models won’t yield large profits in the short term. Finding ways to fund and invest in the transition while minimising risks, which requires collaboration, is crucial.”
“This can be achieved through innovative investment solutions like blended finance, partnerships with the public sector in your region (subsidies), or working with private companies (premium prices).”
Scaling up coffee production by increasing yield per hectare may seem like a straightforward solution to the income challenges faced by coffee farmers, but it is not without its pitfalls.
The strategy’s industrial logic does not align with the ecological realities of coffee farming or the economic complexities of the global coffee market. To truly improve the livelihoods of coffee farmers, a shift in focus is needed—from maximising output to enhancing resilience, quality, and market positioning.
Only then can we begin to address the deep-rooted issues that have long plagued the global coffee sector.
Coffee Intelligence
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